Obama’s Black Support Not Transferring to Democrats in Midterm Elections Like Robin Carnahan in Missouri

Obama surge voters may just stay home for 2010 midterm elections …

It would appear according to the Washington Post that Barack Obama has no “black” coattails for Democrats in the 2010 midterm elections. Even though Obama has pretty much done nothing for his black voting block, they still support him. With unemployment rates higher among blacks than  whites under Obama, polls show that 90% of African Americans believe Obama is doing a good job. A good jobs for who, exactly?

The recession was especially rough on Kansas City’s black community, where unemployment is 15 percent, nearly three times the rate for whites. Adams pointed to the empty chairs in his shop. He’s down 75 customers a week. Of Obama, he said: “That man has a hell of a workload, and Bush left a hell of a mess. I like what he’s doing. But I can’t feel it.”

Despite his frustration with the slow pace of the recovery, Adams, who has portraits of the first family on the walls of his shop, doesn’t think Obama bears the blame for his troubles. And neither do most black Americans. Just the opposite: Polls show that 90 percent of African Americans believe Obama is doing a good job, far higher than the president’s overall 46 percent approval rating. Obama’s popularity has dropped among nearly every segment of the population — old, young, Republican, Democrat, white, Latino. Yet blacks still overwhelmingly support him, even though they are among those who have lost the most since he was elected.

However, even though Obama is still popular among blacks, experts are saying that there is no sign that this will transfer to other Democrat candidates in the 2010 midterms. Take for example Democrat Robin Carnahan running for US Senate in MO who is facing Republican Roy Blunt for the seat of retiring Republican Sen. Christopher S. Bond. Even though blacks came out in record numbers for Obama in 2008, there is no signal that blacks will come out in any comparable amount without Obama on the ballot. Presently, Blunt leads Carnahan 48% to 43% in the polls.

Take Missouri, where blacks make up about 12 percent of the population. Obama narrowly lost the state in 2008, although blacks turned out in record numbers. This year, Missouri’s secretary of state, Democrat Robin Carnahan, is running to replace retiring Republican Sen. Christopher S. Bond.

Carnahan is unlikely to win, however, unless black voters once again rush out to the polls. Without Obama on the ballot, Democratic strategists are having a difficult time generating much interest among blacks. Last week, the president held a rally for Carnahan and attended a fundraiser for her campaign. But in conversations with several African Americans here, support for Carnahan seemed lukewarm at best.

In the end, Obama will have no carry over coattail affect from 2008. The midterm elections of 2010 in many respects is a referandum on Obama’s policies. If the black surge vote of 2008 is nonexistant, middle of the road Democrats are uninspired and the Independents have moved away from Obama and the Democrats … the 2010 midterm elections could be a real nightmare election eve.