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August 11, 2012

Will US Rep Paul Ryan (WI-R) Pick for Romney’s Vice President Bring Wisconsin into Play and Affect Other Midwest States Like Iowa, Ohio, Michigan?

Posted in: 2012 Elections,Barack Obama,Battle Ground States - Swing States,Mitt Romney - Paul Ryan 2012,Obamanation,Ohio,Polls,Presidential Election,Rasmussen

With today’s selection of Rep. Paul Ryan (WI-R) as Mitt Romney’s Vice President, will this have an affect on the Presidential races in Wisconsin and other Midwestern states like Iowa, Ohio, Michigan, Indiana and Minnesota?

According to a recent Rasmussen poll, Obama leads Romney in Wisconsin 49% to 46%. However, this poll was taken prior to the announcement of Ryan being named Romney’s VP pick. In last months Rasmussen poll, Romney inched ahead of the president for the first time in the state – 47% to 44%. It is safe to say that the “Cheese head” state is in play.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Wisconsin Likely Voters shows the president drawing 49% of the vote to Romney’s 46%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided.

Romney is viewed favorably by 50% of Wisconsin voters and unfavorably by 48%, showing little change from last month. The latest findings include Very Favorable reviews from 23% and Very Unfavorable ones from 30%.

Romney leads the president 46% to 39% among Wisconsin voters who are not affiliated with either major political party. The GOP challenger has a seven-point lead among male voters in the state, but the president is ahead by 11 points among female voters.

In 2008 Barack Obama defeated John McCain in Wisconsin 56% to 43%. However, in 2012 Obama is yet to reach 50% as the incumbent. With the recent GOP successes in Wisconsin like the Governor Scott Walker victory in 2010 and his his follow up victory in 2012 with the failed Democrat recall election, Republicans have reason for hope in possibly wrestling Wisconsin away from Democrats in 2012.

In 2010 Republicans picked up a Senate seat when GOP Johnson defeated Russ Feingold. Also, Republicans picked up House seats in Wisconsin 07 and 08. As stated above, the GOP also gained the governorship in 2010. The trend seems to be leaning to the right, especially since Gov. Walker has been doing a tremendous job.

More things to consider in Wisconsin in 2012 as opposed to 2008. In Obama’s landslide, once in a lifetime election in 2010, the voter breakdown demographics was 39% Democrat, 33% republicans and 29% Independent. However, just two years later after voters being disgruntled with Barack Obama, the economy and high unemployment things changed. In the 2010 mid-terms the voter exit polls demographics were 37% Democrats, 36% Republican and 28% Independent. To solidify the trend toward the republicans, Governor Scott Walker won his recall election by a greater margin than he did in the initial 2010 election, even after all the attack ads and union money spent to oust Walker.

Could the pick of Paul Ryan (WI-01), 7 time US Representative be the ticket to a win for the ROMNEY-TYAN ticket in Wisconsin in 2012?

As for Iowa, Michigan, and Ohio … could Ryan, the Midwestern son make these states in play as well? According to Rasmussen, Romney actually leads Obama in Iowa 46% to 44%. Remember, Rasmussen polls likely voters, not registered ones. Likely are just that, more likely to vote rather than just someone who is registered. Barack Obama handily won Iowa in 2008, 54% to 45%. Obama is literally polling -10 in 2012.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Iowa Voters finds Mitt Romney with 46% support to President Obama’s 44%. Five percent (5%) prefer another candidate in the race, and six percent (6%) are undecided.

In Ohio, Obama leads Romney 47% to 45%; however, the incumbent President is polling below 50%. In 2008 Obama won Ohio 52% to 47% which further shows that Obama is polling -5 in 2012. Seeing that Ohio elected a Republican governor in 2010 and most all undecided votes break against the incumbent, Ohio looks close but well in sights for Romney.

Michigan may be the hardest Midwestern state to turn from blue to red; however, Obama is not running away with it. According to a recent Rasmussen poll, Obama leads 48% to 42%. Barack Obama won Michigan in 2008, 57% to 41%; however, he is in no way polling close to that just months away from the 2012 election.

We shall see what affect Paul Ryan has on the ticket of ROMNEY-RYAN 2012 and a GOP ticket that is going to talk seriously about the state of the US economy and act like adults as opposed to Team Obama who has been running away frm his record and simply attacking Romney. Gone is Hope and Change.

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