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November 04, 2016

The Key to a Donald Trump Presidential Victory Could Be New Hampsire … 3 Polls Have Him Tied or Ahead

Posted in: Battle Ground States - Swing States,Donald Trump,Donald Trump,Donald Trump - Mike Pence 2016,New Hamsphire,Polls

COULD NEW HAMPSHIRE REALLY BE IN PLAY AND GO FOR DONALD TRUMP?

Just yesterday we were discussing the WBUR poll in New Hampshire that showed Trump ahead of Clinton by 1 percentage point. It turns out that 3 polls were released on Thursday in New Hampshire and all show either Donald Trump tied or ahead of Hillary Clinton. Could there really be a shift in the polls in New Hampshire this late in the game? We shall see next Thursday. If Trump has a chance of winning, he probably needs to take NH.

RCP NH Poll 110416

Republican nominee Donald Trump, who trailed Hillary Clinton by near-double digits in the state of New Hampshire last month, has suddenly mounted a comeback in the key battleground state.

Three polls in the Granite State released Thursday showed Trump at least tied with Clinton, the Democratic nominee, in the state. In one survey, he gained a 1-point advantage, and in another, he was up 5 points.

It was a pointed shift from just more than a week ago, when Clinton led by an average of 8 points in the RealClearPolitics polling average of the state. The swing comes amid signs that a turbulent week for the Clinton campaign — including the news of the FBI’s reactivated investigation into her private email server — has taken a toll on the Democratic nominee’s poll numbers.

A Boston Globe/Suffolk University poll that showed the race deadlocked at 42-42, for example, found that 49% of New Hampshire voters said the revelations made them less likely to support Clinton, while 45% said they wouldn’t affect their votes.

“Both Trump and Clinton seek to win 48% of the New Hampshire vote, which should be good enough to win the state,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center.


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