2010 Midterm Illinois Senate Election: GOP Kirk leads DEM Giannoulias in Liberal DailyKos/Research 2000 Poll

DENIAL IS NOT JUST A RIVER IN EGYPT …

Talk about being in real trouble,  a new DailyKos/Research 2000 poll in Illinois shows Republican Mark Kirk leading Democrat Alexi Giannoulias (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 41% to 38%. In February, Giannoulias has a 7 point lead. This Senate race is for Obama former US Senate seat. What an embarrassing loss this would be election eve.

Not a good couple of months for the Democrats. Giannoulias has clearly taken a hit from the collapse of his family bank. In the previous poll, Independents basically split their vote 36-35, with the slight (statistically insignificant) edge to Giannoulias. This week, Kirk leads 39-31 among indies, though 30 percent remain undecided.

It’s pretty telling when a Democrat is trailing in a liberal leaning poll. So how does the LEFT find a silver lining?

Kos finds a silver lining in this question: “Would you be more likely to vote for a candidate who supports and will work to improve the new health care reform law, or a candidate who will work to repeal it completely?”

Here the answer is support 51%, repeal 35% — suggesting that a Democrat ought to naturally have the upper hand in this race.

Now let’s take a look at the Rasmussen poll, one with a track record of correctly predicting elections including Barack Obaama’s in 2008.

Rasmussen has Republican Kirk ahead of Democrat Giannoulias by a 46% to 38% margin in April 2010 polling. Prior to that Kirk has a 41% to 37% lead and in March Giannoulias lead Kirk 44% – 41%. It can obviously be seen which way the trending is headed.

Unlike the Obamacare  support of 51% to repeal 35%  from the KOS poll, Rasmussen has it much closer, with 50% in favor of Obamacare and 47% in favor of repealing it.

Support for the national health care plan is higher in the president’s home state than it is nationally. Forty-seven percent (47%) of Illinois voters favor repealing the health care bill, including 35% who Strongly Favor repeal. But 50% are opposed to repeal, including 37% who are Strongly Opposed.

Thus, it’s more of a break even which should be troubling for any Democrat candidate in a state where Obama was the former US and state Senator. What will the race ultimately come down to … the independent vote. The problem for Democrats is that across the country, those not affiliated with any major party have been breaking Republican.

If the next Rasmussen poll shows a continued trend for Kirk, Democrats could be in for a long and embarrassing midterm election eve.