TN Blue Dog Democrat John Tanner (US Rep.- D) Announces Retirement … And So it Begins

Drip, drip, drip … It is a sign of the political times. Democrat incumbents are reading the tea leaves and it doesn’t look good in 2010.

What is that sound? It is the sound of inevitability.

It has begun and it is not even the 2010 midterms, top Tennessee Blue Dog Democrat US Representative John Tanner has announced his retirement. From The Hotline, very good news for Republicans as Tanner announces he will step down. Tanner sees the handwriting on the wall and knows that he would have lost the seat any how.

US REP (D-TN) Tanner to step down in 2010

Democrat incumbents will soon be listed on the endangered political species list. Democrats can down play it all they want and Obama’s minions can say that Obama is not on the ballot in 2010. Oh yes he is … the Governor races in New Jersey and Virginia were the shot across the bow, the midterms could be complete Democrat carnage.

As Democrats look into the Magic 8 Ball, signs point to “big losses”. As the Magic 8 Ball … Will Democrats lose big in 2010?

Say goodbye to a 11 term House Dem where the seat will certainly go RED.

Tanner has begun informing key House Dems of his decision — one that will make his seat a prime pickup opportunity for GOPers. He has served 11 terms in Congress representing northwest TN, a district based around Jackson, Clarksville and Union City.

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Tanner will be the second Dem to announce his retirement in recent days, following Rep. Dennis Moore’s (D-KS) decision late last week to step down. Both men represent districts that voted heavily for Pres. Bush twice; in ’08, Tanner’s CD gave Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) a 56%-43% margin, while Moore’s Kansas City-based seat gave Pres. Obama a narrow 51%-48% margin.

But when Tanner does step down, GOPers will once again point out their success with Dem open seats in the ’94 cycle.

Dems are quick to point out that the DCCC, and chair Chris Van Hollen, has been successful in stemming what could have been a tide of retirements at the end of this cycle. Still, if incumbents begin to believe this will not be a good year for their party, a wave of retirements could materialize.

As stated in The Tennessean, “Rep. Tanner wisely threw in the towel,” NRCC spokesman Andy Sere said in a statement, calling him” a longtime incumbent who had gone unchallenged for two decades” who “was terrified of losing next year.”

So is this going to become a trend? Blue Dog Democrats and other moderates in swing state districts that see the impending tsunami that is about to occur? It is no longer simmering beneath the surface, but in fact has become the 10,000 lb gorilla in the room. Republicans are energized and Independents are running away from Obama and Democrats in hoards. Obama’s numbers continue to sink.

Republicans have a 7 point lead in the Generic Congressional ballot over Dems.

Democrats are running for the exits as they see a bad beat down in 2010.

Tanner’s retirement means that Democrats now are vacating five seats that offer Republicans prime pickup opportunities. Aside from Moore and Tanner, Reps. Charlie Melancon (D-La.), Joe Sestak (D-Pa.) and Paul Hodes (D-N.H.) are running for the Senate, leaving behind competitive open seats.