2012 Presidential Election: Is Minnesota Really in Play for Romney?

Minnesota a battleground state?

A virtual tie in Minnesota between Mitt Romney and Barack Obama? Really, could this be true? The mere fact that we are talking about it this late in the game for the 2012 Presidential election is hardly a good think for President Obama.

According to a Minnesota Star Tribune poll, Mitt Romney only trails Obama by 3 points, 47% to 44%. Just last month Obama had an 8 percent lead in the Land of 10,000 Lakes. This is eye brow raising to say the least.

As the presidential race tightens across the country, a new Star Tribune Minnesota Poll has found that it is narrowing here as well, with President Obama holding a 3-point lead and Republican Mitt Romney making gains in the state.

The poll shows Obama with support from 47 percent of likely voters and Romney earning backing from 44 percent — a lead within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Last month, Obama had an 8-percentage point advantage in the Minnesota Poll. Romney has apparently cut into the Democrat’s advantage among women since then and picked up support from Minnesotans who were previously undecided or said they would vote for a third-party candidate.

Hot Air has a breakdown of the voting demographics and how Obama is struggling mightily. Obama won Minnesota in 2008 by 10% over John McCain, with Obama only polling at 47% with less than 10 days to go, that can’t be good for Team Obama.

In 2008, Obama had a 19-point edge in the gender gap, +3 among men and +16 among women.  This time, Obama has only a +1 — he’s up 14 among women but down 13 among men.  Obama still leads by 6 among independents, which he won by 17 points in 2008, but he’s only got 43%.  Late breakers are not likely to flow to the incumbent at this stage of the election; if the were inclined to support Obama, they’d already be in his corner now.

That’s true of the overall number as well. If Obama can only get to 47% in the Star Tribune poll with nine days left to go before the election in Minnesota, which has gone Democrat every presidential election over the last four years, this state is in play — and that’s why both campaigns are suddenly starting to spend money here.

If Minnesota is truly a battleground state in 2012 and Obama has to worry about losing the state, he could be in for a long, long election night.

UPDATE I: Blue Crab Boulevard asks, could this be another “wave” election? It is possible as Obama is under performing in many states that he easily won in 2008. States that he barely and surprisingly won in 2008 like Indiana, North Carolina, Colorado, New Hampshire, Florida and Virgina are all but gone in 2012. However, it is states like Minnesota, Wisconsin, Nevada and Pennsylvania that he easily won in 2008 that are actually in play this close to election. Even in solid blue states like New Jersey, California and Connecticut, Obama is under performing.