Most Americans Think Barack Obama Will Not be Reelected in 2012

The come back kid, really? A majority of registered voters say “Just say No” to BO in 2012. According to a recent CNN poll, a majority of Americans stated that Barack Obama will not be reelected in 2012.

In a new CNN poll, 26% of registered voters say they will definitely vote for Obama and 37% say they won’t. If you add in those leaning one way or the other, it turns out that 47% will probably or definitely vote for Obama and 51% probably or definitely won’t.

Should Obama be concerned about this poll almost 2 years out from the election? Yes, the problem still seems to be with convincing “Independents”. As reported at Hot Line On Call, “Independent voters would vote against Obama by a 44 percent to 53 percent margin.”

And more voters say, at the moment, they will vote against Obama. Fully 51 percent say they definitely or probably will not vote for Obama, while 47 percent say they’re predisposed to vote for him. Independent voters would vote against Obama by a 44 percent to 53 percent margin, while he would win moderates by a much larger 55 percent to 45 percent margin.

Hmm … Ed Rollins asks whether Obama can be beaten in 2012, the answer is yes. In order for Obama to play to the middle, he will have to upset his liberal base. In order for Obama to potray himself of a phoney middle of the roader, he will have to completely change everything that he has done during his first two years of office. Who really sees that happening?

The safest bet is that Obama will be the Democratic nominee. You can go to the bank on that one. And my counsel is to stay away from betting this far in advance on the Republican side. Unless you’re privy to divine inspiration, the best thing to do is to watch the process evolve.

One thing that you should know though is there are some extremely competent candidates who I believe will run — and that whoever wins the GOP nomination will be a formidable opponent for Obama.

The political landscape of 2012 is nothing like the one that ushered Obama into office in 2008. Barack Obama now has a record that he must defend, not slogans like “Hope & Change”. His signature piece of legislation, Obamacare, is highly unpopular and faces an ultimate court challenge in the SCOTUS.  Then there is the economy. In the wake of the 2010 midterm elections, it is obvious that a majority of Americans are against Obama’s and Democrat policies. The loss of US Reps, US Senators, Governors and state legislatures in the 2010 shellacking will greatly affect Obama’s reelection bid.

Popularity only goes so far, an unpopular opinion on policy during difficult times trumps it every time. Pundits can make a fluffy puff piece as to why Obama could win, but just look at the shift in the electoral college and where Obama will get wins in 2012 as compared to 2008?

The shift in the political environment where the GOP swept elections in 2010 in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virgina, North Carolina, Indiana and Florida. All states that Barack Obama carried in the 2008 Presidental election. How does Obama win in 2012?