CBS Poll: Majority of Likely Voters Say Their House Vote is a Referendum on Barack Obama … More Voting Against Obama Than For The One

With less than one week to go before the 2010 midterm election, a new CBS poll has the Republican party ahead in the Congressional Generic ballot over Democrats 46% to 40%. As seen in most of the polls over the last 6 months, independents are breaking sharply for the GOP. To make matters worse for Democrats, even though President Obama has been campaigning nonstop for Democrats, 56% of likely voters say Obama’s support for a candidate has no impact on their vote.

The advantage can be attributed in large part to independents, who are breaking hard for the GOP. Forty-seven percent of independent likely voters say they plan to vote Republican, while just 32 percent plan to vote Democrat. Seventeen percent haven’t made up their minds.

More than four in five Democrats and Republicans, meanwhile, say they are sticking with their party.

A majority of likely voters say their House vote is a referendum on President Obama, and more are voting against the president than for him. Thirty-two percent are casting a vote against Mr. Obama, while 22 percent are casting their vote to support him. Forty-two percent say their vote is about something else.

 Rasmussen has the Congressional Generic ballot at Republicans 49% and Democrats 40%. Real Clear Politics has the average polling of Congressional Generic ballots with a 6.5% lead for the GOP.

What might be the most interesting and alarming bit of polling data for Democrats in this CBS poll is the fact that the GOP has a slight lead with woman over Democrats. If that holds true across America on election day, Democrats will only wish there was a tsunami, rather than a follow up volcano, earthquake and tidal wave.

Men favor Republican candidates in their House vote this year by eight points, while the Republican edge is narrower among women.
Likely voters under age 45 are divided in their vote for Congress, while older voters are more likely to vote for Republicans.