Dead Heat in the 2010 Pennsylvania Democratic Primary for Senate, Specter 44%, Sestak 42%

Its a dead heat. The 2010 Pennsylvania Democrat Primary is about one month (May 18) away and the race could not be any tighter as incumbent Senator Arlen Specter leads challenger Joe Sestak 44% to 42%.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely primary voters in the state finds Specter with 44% of the vote, his lowest level of support in 10 months of surveying. Sestak, a congressman from the Philadelphia suburbs, earns 42% support this month, a level he’s hit several times but never exceeded.

Four percent (4%) of likely Democratic primary voters prefer some other candidate in the race, and 10% are undecided.

Just a month ago the race seemed to be all but over as Specter lead Sestak 48% to 37%. What a difference a month makes and what a difference Sestak claiming that the Obama WH tried to offer him a position to get out of the race makes as well.

The biggest news in the race in recent weeks has been Sestak’s charge that the White House offered him a high-level position if he dropped out of the primary race, but he has since refused to provide any further details.

Just how damning is it to be a Democrat incumbent these days? Especially when you are an incumbent Democrats like Specter who used to be a Republican until he realized he would not win his parties primary nomination to hold on to his power.

Real Clear Politics has a round up of many this and other political polling data.

A hard primary battle may just weaken the Democrat candidate enough to have the Keystone state flip Republican in November 2010. As of last month Republican Toomay was leading Specter in a mythical match up 49% to 40%.  All the signs, data and economic conditions in PA point toward a Republican Senate gain in the midterm elections.