The PEW Report that Has Democrats Extremely Worried on the Eve of Midterms … Major Swing to Republicans

The Pew Research Center has published a poll that is more than eye opening. On the surface, it states that, “Republicans Cut Democratic Lead in Campaign’s Final Days; Democrats Hold 47%-43% Lead Among Likely Voters”. Why are Democrats panicking? One month ago Democrats were ahead by 13. More than a month ago the number was in the 20’s. Read the full report, or the all important cross-tabs.

The Captain Quarter’s has done a tremendous job on extracting some of the most important information from The Pew Report that has to have Democratic leaders and pundits perplexed.

The last Pew Research poll was taken in early October. In a month the following has occurred

• The Democrats have lost non-minorities altogether. The gap among all whites went from +5 Democrats to +5 GOP, a ten-point swing.
• White females had supported Democrats by a 15-point margin and a majority (55-40), but now give the GOP a 2-point lead.
• The Democrats have also lost the middle class, a big problem in this election.
• Households earning between $50K-$75K and $30K-$50K have both slipped to the GOP. The former switched from a 14-point margin for the Democrats to an eight-point Republican lead, while the latter has had an even more dramatic shift. Those earners had favored Democrats by 22 points, but now go Republican by 3.
• The Democrats even lost the tie they had with earners above $75K, and now trail there by seven. They did extend their margin for earners below $30K from 25 points to 30.

One thing is for certain that momentum is on the side of Republicans heading into tomorrow’s midterm elections. The question is whether this momentum will continue to affect some vital close races in the House and Senate. The following Senate races have become interesting to say the least. The stated 6 to 8 seats that Democrats have boasted they would pick up, may turn into a last minute fizzle. Did the Democrats once again over play their hand and celebrate too early? Momentum is clearly on the side of the Republican party and a motivated base. Tomorrow will tell the real answers. Or at least after all the law suits and voter fraud allegations.

• Missouri Senate : Talent (R) 49% –  McCaskill (D) 48%
• Montana Senate: Tester (D) 50% –  Burns (R) 48% (hard charging burns after being counted out)
• Tennessee Senate: Corker (R) 51% –  Ford (D) 47%
• Virginia Senate: Allen (R) 49% –  Webb (D) 49% or Allen (R) 49% –  Webb (D) 46% 
• Maryland Senate: Steele (R) 44% – Carden (D) 47% (Steele has cut into a once 13% lead)
• Rhode Island Senate: Chafee (R) 45%  – Whitehouse (D) 48% (This race had been a double digit lead for Whitehouse)

Memorandum From RNC Chairman Ken Mehlman: Another Poll Confirms GOP Momentum