Midterm Elections Look like they are a Toss Up Again, Did Democrats Celebrate Too Early?

With the 2006 Mid-term elections getting closer, so are the polls. The once insurmountable and some what skewed lead in House and Senate seats for Democrats known as the “blue wave” has dwindled. What, the Democrats overplaying their hand, never. There is one thing to keep in mind when the actual election dates draws closer when it comes to polls. Even polls that purposely skew results have to maintain a more realistic result as a poll is judged on its effectiveness in predicting the actual voting outcome. No one gives any credibility to a poll that is consistently wrong.

The latest polls show something very strange and quite encouraging is happening: The Republican base seems to be coming back home. This trend, only vaguely and dimly emerging from a variety of polls, suggests that a trend may be afoot that would deny the Democrats control of the House and the Senate. (VOTE.com)

Ignore the media spin that the conservative vote is depressed because of scandals. Beware of polls that provide an outcome with no demographics. One thing is for certain when it comes to a Republican get out the vote campaign, none of them want to see San Francisco ultra-lib Nancy Pelosi as Speaker. Good ole Nancy Pelosi, she’s a uniter not a divider. I would ask any Southern Democrat if they realize what Nancy Pelosi as a Speaker of the House would be like as she represents one of the most off the chart liberal sections of the country? Obviously her following comments speak for themselves.

Her directness of speech was a subject Lesley Stahl of CBS’ “60 Minutes” elected last week to emphasize, asking just how did she intend to achieve her goal of bringing civility back to Washington given the language she tends to use about Republicans. Pelosi, viewers were reminded, has called her Republican colleagues “immoral” and “corrupt,” suggesting that they were backing a criminal enterprise. Stahl said: “I mean, you’re one of the reasons we have to restore civility in the first place.”

Pelosi raised her eyes in unconcern. “Well, actually, when I called them those names I was being gentle. There are much worse things I could have said about them.“(Yahoo News)

They hardly wish to see Harry Reed as the leader of the Senate. Republicans may have issues with those candidates in their party; however, they know that a Democratic controlled House & Senate is beyond a disaster.

* Pollsters Scott Rasmussen and John Zogby both show Republican Bob Corker gaining on Democratic Rep. Harold Ford Jr. in Tennessee, a must-win Senate seat for the Democrats. Zogby has Corker ahead by seven, while Rasmussen still shows a Ford edge of two points.

* Zogby reports a “turnaround” in New Jersey’s Senate race with the GOP candidate Tom Kean taking the lead, a conclusion shared by some other public polls.

New Jersey Senate	9-5-06	9-25-06	10-16-06
Kean Jr. (R)	37%	41%	47%
Menendez* (D)	41%	47%	45%
Flynn (LT)	4%	2%	2%
Pason (S)	1%	0%	0%

* Even though Sen. Jim Talent in Missouri is still under the magic 50 percent threshold for an incumbent, Rasmussen has him one point ahead and Zogby puts him three up. But unless he crests 50 percent, he’ll probably still lose.

Missouri Senate	9-5-06	9-25-06	10-16-06
Talent* (R)	48%	47%	50%
McCaskill (D)	43%	45%	47%
Gilmour (LT)	3%	3%	2%

(Zogby)

* In Virginia, Republican embattled incumbent Sen. George Allen has now moved over the 50 percent threshold in his internal polls. (He’d been at 48 percent.)

Rasmussen Balance of Power

For the best round up of all polls for candidates, go to Real Clear Politics

GOP holds narrow lead in must-win Senate races

Barons predicts jubilant Democrats should reconsider

Could the Democrats have peaked to soon and counted the proverbial chickens two weeks too soon? The With 15 days to go the Republicans do have more in their war chests to spend on getting their message out. The continued record breaking Wall Street stock numbers continue to provide a positive for the economy. Also the continuing fall of oil as well. Tomorrow the Fed meets and it is expected that they will hold steady on interest rates. If they lower them, markets watch out.  The question will be answered in two weeks in the ultimate poll, election day.