First Read provides a road map that shows a difficult path for Democrats to remain in power in the Senate and a rosier path for Republicans. The GOP just needs a net pickup of 3 seats to gain control in the US Senate and it seems that 8 of the top 10 Democrat Senate seats could flip to the GOP.
1. North Dakota (D): Sen. Kent Conrad’s (D) decision to retire has placed this seat in extreme jeopardy in the “red”state of ND.
2. Nebraska (D): Sen. Ben Nelson (D). Nebraska voters will not forget the ”Cornhusker Kickback” during the health-care debate.
3. Montana (D): Freshman Democrat Jon Tester won narrowly in 2006 in a year that saw the Senate flip from the GOP to the Democrats. However, the political environment has changed significantly since then.
4. Missouri (D): Sen. Claire McCaskill. She can pretend to be a moderate all she wants, the voters, especially independents are not buying.
5. Virginia (D): As Jim Webb (D) retires, we are presented with the hypothetical matchup between former Gov. Tim Kaine and ’06 Senate race loser George Allen.
6. New Mexico (D): Jeff Bingaman’s retirement puts this seat in play, but it could be a tough get for Republicans in a state that swung for Obama in 2008.
7. Nevada (R): Heller’s entrance gave Republicans a much better chance at holding this seat than if John Ensign stayed in the race.
8. Massachusetts (R) : Scott Brown is being targeted by Democrats; however, Brown remains the most popular politician in the state.
9. Florida (D): Can Bill Nelson hang on in the state that elected Rick Scott (R) governor and US Senator Marco Rubeo in 2010?
10. Michigan (D): Will the economy be the Democrats undoing? Will Obama’s campaigning in the state going to be enough to put Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) over the top even though he has shown a lack of coattails in the past? The GOP did surprising well in the 2010 elections in Michigan, including winning the Governor’s seat.
After Republicans picked up six seats in 2010, Democrats will be hard pressed to maintain a majority following the 2012 elections.
Grim future for Democrats in the US Senate …
Charlie Cook of the famed political Cook Report states that Democrats have a tough row to hoe in 2012 and 2014 in the US Senate. With the large amount of seats that Democrats have to defend in 2012 and 2014, holding power in the Senate is pretty much a lost cause. Presently, Democrats have control of the Senate 53 – 47. In 2012 Democrats have to defend 23 seats (21 Democrats & 2 Independents who caucus with Dems) while Republicans only have to defend 10. In 2014, Democrats have to defend 20 seats, while the GOP only has to defend 13.
US Senate Democrats seats up for election in 2012. We would say that there is a bulls-eye on some of the following seats, but that would be uncivil.
Akaka, Daniel K. – (D – HI)
Bingaman, Jeff – (D – NM) – RETIRING [seat in trouble]
Brown, Sherrod – (D – OH) [state trending GOP]
Cantwell, Maria – (D – WA)
Cardin, Benjamin L. – (D – MD)
Carper, Thomas R. – (D – DE)
Casey, Robert P., Jr. – (D – PA) [state trending GOP]
Conrad, Kent – (D – ND) - RETIRING [seat in trouble]
Feinstein, Dianne – (D – CA)
Gillibrand, Kirsten E. – (D – NY)
Klobuchar, Amy – (D – MN)
Kohl, Herb – (D – WI)
Lieberman, Joseph I. – (ID – CT) – RETIRING
Manchin, Joe, III – (D – WV) [if Manchin does not vote as a Republican, seat in trouble, state trending GOP]
McCaskill, Claire – (D – MO) [seat in trouble, state trending GOP]
Menendez, Robert – (D – NJ)
Nelson, Ben – (D – NE) [seat in trouble]
Nelson, Bill – (D – FL) [state trending GOP]
Sanders, Bernard – (I – VT)
Stabenow, Debbie – (D – MI)
Tester, Jon – (D – MT)
Webb, Jim – (D – VA) – RETIRING [seat in trouble]
Whitehouse, Sheldon – (D – RI)
Democrat seats up in 2014. Keep in mind, these Senators were elected in the 2008 Obama promise of “Hope & Change” election.
Baucus, Max – (D – MT) – [GOP state, Obamacare could come back to haunt Baucus]
Begich, Mark – (D – AK) [heavy GOP state]
Coons, Christopher A. – (D – DE)
Durbin, Richard J. – (D – IL)
Franken, Al – (D – MN) [MN may want to correct the mistake they made in 2008]
Hagan, Kay R. – (D – NC) [heavy trending GOP state]
Harkin, Tom – (D – IA)
Johnson, Tim – (D – SD)
Kerry, John F. – (D – MA)
Landrieu, Mary L. – (D – LA)
Lautenberg, Frank R. – (D – NJ) [he will be 90, probaly will retire ... will NJ trend GOP with Chris Christie wave?]
Levin, Carl – (D – MI)
Merkley, Jeff – (D – OR)
Pryor, Mark L. – (D – AR)
Reed, Jack – (D – RI)
Rockefeller, John D., IV – (D – WV)
Shaheen, Jeanne – (D – NH) [state trending GOP]
Udall, Mark – (D – CO)
Udall, Tom – (D – NM)
Warner, Mark R. – (D – VA) [state trending GOP]
GAME ON … OBAMACARE A HUGE POLITICAL ISSUE FOR THE 2012 ELECTIONS …
In a vote directly along party lines, the repeal of Obamacare in the US Senate was voted down 47-51. The election game in in in the run up to 2012 as no Democrats present yesterday voted for the repeal of Obamacare. Senators Joe Lieberman (I-CT) and Mark Warner (D-VA) were not present. This will play out as a major political issue heading into the 2012 election season. As previously stated, Democrats must defend 23 Senate seats in 2012, many in “red” states, including vulnerable Democratic Sens. Joe Manchin (WV), Claire McCaskill (MO), Jon Tester (MT) and Ben Nelson (NE). Their continued position against the will of their constituents in their states will prove to be interesting in 2012. As tweeted by the Gateway Pundit, even Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill voted against the repeal, even though 71% of the “Show Me” state was in favor of the repeal.
The Senate on Wednesday voted down a repeal of President Obama’s healthcare law in a 47-51 party-line vote.
The vote came two weeks to the day the Republican House voted 245-189 to repeal the law, and just days after a federal judge ruled Obama’s signature legislative achievement is unconstitutional.
How much longer can Democrats continue to be on the wrong side of Obamacare against the will of the American people and continue to hold the majority in the Senate? The question will be answered in the 2012 election. Barack Obama has stated he has wanted to move on from the issue of Obamacare and will not consider repeal; however, We the People and the Courts seem to have a differing opinion.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) Promises to Hold Vote on Obamacare … Democrats May Want to “reevaluate” their Support
On the foot heals of the Florida federal district judge ruling that Obamacare is unconstitutional, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) states that there will be a vote in the US Senate this week on the repeal of Obamacare. Will a Senate vote occur like the one that passed in the House? The momentum is on the side of those opposed to Obamacare and we head into the 2012 elections.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell will force an up-or-down vote on the repeal of healthcare reform on Wednesday, testing the unity of Democrats who had promised the rollback would never see the light of day in their chamber.
The vote in the Senate will come two weeks to the day after the House voted, largely along party lines, to repeal the healthcare law.
Mitch McConnell stated that he would offer healthcare reform repeal as an amendment to legislation on the Senate floor. McConnel also warned moderate Democrats and those up for reelection in 2012 that they might want to reevaluate their pro-Obamacare votes. In 2012, Democrats will have to defend 23 Senate seats while the GOP only 10. Among those Democrats who face reelection in 2012 in Red states or those that have trended Red are Joe Manchin (WV), Sherrod Brown (OH), Robert Casey (PA), Ben Nelson (NE), Bill Nelson (FL), and Jim Webb (VA), not to mention Democrat KentConrad retitring in the red, red state of North Dakota. This might be a symbolic vote; however, the results will have ramification all the way to election day 2012.
In a statement, McConnell said the repeal vote gives Democrats a chance to “reevaluate” their support for the controversial healthcare law, which a federal judge in Florida struck down as unconstitutional on Monday.
“For all those who supported the health law, it’s an opportunity to re-evaluate your vote. To listen to your constituents who are desperately trying to get your attention. You can say, ‘Perhaps this was a mistake. We can do this better.’ Or you can continue to dismiss the majority of the people in this country as not knowing what they’re talking about.”
The more that Barack Obama and Democrats try to ram Obamacare down the throats of Americans, the more “We the People” oppose the government take of health care bill. According to the most recent Rasmussen poll, 56% of American voters are now opposed to the health care bill, while only 38% are in favor.
Americans continue to see Senators like Ben Nelson (NE-D) and Mary Landrieu (LA-D) get deals to bribe them for their vote while Democrat voting constituencies like Unions get exempt from Cadillac taxes on health care insurance plans while regular non-union people are not so lucky.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that just 38% of voters nationwide favor the health care reform plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats. That matches the lowest level of support yet. Fifty-six percent (56%) of voters oppose the plan.