How bad is it for Democrat these days … even the Washington Post has a pathway to 10 US Senate pickups for Republicans and the regaining of control of the Senate. The House seems to be a forgone conclusion as a Democrat loss, the MSM looks to the Senate. With the poor handling of the economy and a liberal agenda from the Obama White House and their complicit minions in the House and the Senate … even liberal media has to report the possible Senate takeover two weeks before the election to save credibility.
Although most experts and political pundits think that it is a tall order in 2010, The WAPO has developed a path of 10 GOP Senate pick-ups in the 2010 midterm elections that could mean that the Republican party to be in control of the US Senate once again. Difficult as it may be, the GOP would have to pick up 10 seats presently held by Democrats while also defending all of the seats that they presently hold.
Here is the WAPO’s path to a potential GOP victory as they lay out their plan in a 4 tier process:
The first tier: Democratic-held seats in North Dakota, Indiana and Arkansas are near-certain Republican pickups. Democrats aren’t even seriously contesting the open Senate seat in North Dakota, of which Gov. John Hoeven (R) is the de facto winner. … So that’s plus three for Republicans.
The second tier: [In Wisconsin]Sen. Russell Feingold (D-Wis.) is in deep trouble in his reelection bid against wealthy businessman Ron Johnson. … In Pennsylvania,Democrats insist they are on the comeback trail – and recent polling shows the race tightening somewhat – but former congressman Pat Toomey (R) had opened up a steady edge over Rep. Joe Sestak (D). Give Republicans both seats and they are halfway to the majority: plus five.
Democrats could lose the US Senate, once unthought of, now a real possibility.
Just curious, when Scott Brown won in Massachusetts in the special election for the seat formerly held by the late Ted Kennedy, why didn’t all people think at that point that it was possible for Republicans to win in any state? The Massachusetts special Senate election represented the shot heard round the world and was the symbol that all things were possible. Think Brown’s victory was a one hit wonder? Not at all,Brown is presently out-polling President Barack Obama and Senator John Kerry (MA-D)
Remember when the political pundits only said that the US House of Representatives was in play and Democrats feared that it could flip and control go back to the Republicans? Less than 60 days from the 2010 midterm elections and now many think that Democrats could lose the US Senate as well.
A terrible economy, near 10% unemployment, no jobs really being created, an unpopular $787 billion stimulus package, and unpopular Obamacare law passed, an unpopular President Obama and a complicit Democrat party that passed numerous laws against the will of the people and the unpopular suing of a state on illegal immigration has all lead to the most improbable outcome … a complete sweep of Senate races and control by the GOP. The following are the top 10 US Senate races that Democrats need to worry about.
1. North Dakota (1): Get ready to ho-down with Republican John Hoeven (R); yes, we’re running out of Hoeven puns. Ranking: Solid GOP. [This race is over Hoeven is up by over 40% in the polls]
2. Delaware (2): Does Mike Castle (R) survive his primary against Christine O’Donnell (R)? The GOP’s likelihood of winning this seat depends on it. Ranking (with Castle as nominee): Probable GOP.[This race is up in the air as who knows who will win the GOP primary? Castle is ahead in polls against the Democrat in a general election; however, he is a RINO at best. Can O'Donnell win the GOP primary, after all she is the real Republican in the race? If she does, can she wil the general election in a blue state?]
3. Arkansas (3): Bill Clinton campaigned this week for incumbent Blanche Lincoln (D), but it’s unlikely to change the dynamics of her race against John Boozman (R). Ranking: Probable GOP. [Probably GOP? Barack Obama has a better chance of providing tax cuts to the rich than Lincoln does of winning, she is down by 38% in the polls.]
4. Indiana (4): Speaking of being able to change the dynamics, Brad Ellsworth (D) hasn’t caught up to Dan Coats (R). Ranking: Probable GOP. [Republican Coats up by 21% over the Democrat, this seat is lost by the Democrats.]
5. Pennsylvania (5): After being dormant for the last couple of months, Joe Sestak’s (D) campaign has become more active, with Biden and Obama set to stump for him later this month. Right now, though, this is Pat Toomey’s (R) race to lose. Ranking: Lean GOP. [Not only is GOP candidate Toomey ahead in the polls, the Republican Gov. candidate Corbett is far outpacing the Democrats. It will be a clean sweep in the Keystone state.]
6. Illinois (7): The Alexi Giannoulias (D)-vs.-Mark Kirk (R) contest remains what we consider to be the truest 50%-50% race out there. Ranking: Toss Up. [Democrat candidate only gets 37% in the polling, hard to imagine that translates to a victory.]
7. Colorado(unranked): The Ken Buck (R)-vs.-Michael Bennet (D) race is close to being a pure 50%-50% race, too. Which force will be greater — the overall political environment, or the GOP’s woes in the state? Ranking: Toss Up. [The Democrat incumbent is only polling at 44%, far below the 50% usually considered needed.]
8. Nevada (8): Now we enter the contests where Democrats might have an advantage by a fingernail. But the Harry Reid (D)-vs.Sharron Angle (R) race is going to close. Fasten your seatbelts. Ranking: Toss Up. [Its a dead heat in Nevada; however, Harry Reid, the Democrat Senate Majority leader is polling below 50%. Do Nevada voters really want more in the same? Even though Reid wants to distance himself from Obama and the economy, Reid has been in lock step with Obama and is completely responsible.]
9. Wisconsin (unranked): As was the case in ‘98, Russ Feingold (D) is fighting for his political life. What makes this time more difficult for him is that this political environment is much different than ’98 was. Ranking: Toss Up. [Incumbent Democrat Feingold trails GOP candidate Johnson in the polls. The fact that a dark blue state like Wisconsin is even being discussed tells us just how much trouble the Democrats are in.]
10. Washington (10):If Republicans indeed catch a wave on Election Night, we’ll be pulling an all-nighter watching the returns from the Patty Murray (D)-vs.-Dino Rossi (R) race. Ranking: Toss Up. [Republican Dina Rossi has a 2% point lead in the post recent Rasmussen poll and incumbent Democrat Patti Murray is polling below 50%. If Washington goes, one would think that Democrats would lose control of the Senate.]
But wait, there is more an an honorable mention of even more states that Democrats have to worry about. Check out California and West Virginia, both also in fear of being lost by Democrats. As stated by First Read, it is quite amazing that Republicans have a better chance of flipping West Virginia’s Senate seat than Democrats have in picking up the one in Ohio.
Check out the Scared Monkeys analysis made in February 2010, seems like some were ahead of the MSM curve. At that point, even before many primaries were complete, we were stating a +9 for Republicans.
Mother Jones importantly notes that there is not one Democrat gain on this list. This is literally unheard of. So many US Senate races and it is only the Democrats that are in fear of having seats flipped on November 2, 2010.
If Democrats think they have an issue in 2010 … 2012 does not appear to be much better. Check out some of the vulnerable races in 2012:
?WV – Robert Byrd is nor longer the Senator, this will be the vote for the 6 year term for whoever wins the 2010 special election.
?ND – Kent Conrad could be the victim of the anti-Obama vote.
?NE – Ben Nelson and the corn husker kickback. Payback will be on the minds of many and he just might be the Blanche Lincoln of 2012.
?FL – Bill Nelson and his preferential Obamacare deal
?VA – Jim Webb in newly “Red” Virginia like what swept Bob McDonnell into office.
?OH – Sherrod Brown in a swing state like Ohio in a Presidential year. How much of the vote against Obama will be a vote against Brown?
?PA – Robert Casey in a swing states that could trend against the incumbent President.
?NY – If Kirsten Gillibrand wins in 2010, will there be a strong GOP candidate like Rudy unseat her in 2012?
With incumbent Democrat US Senator Byron Dorgan retiring, there appears to be nothing in the way between North Dakota Republican Governor John Hoeven and a trip to Washington, DC as North Dakota’s new Senator. Although even if Dorgan had run, polling showed that he would have been easily defeated.
In the most recent Rasmussen poll, Hoeven leads his Democrat rival by an insurmountable 68% to 25% amount. Add one to the Republican pick up for Senate Republicans.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in North Dakota shows Hoeven leading his Democratic opponent Tracy Potter 68% to 25% in their race for the U.S. Senate. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.
Hoeven posted a 71% to 17% lead over Potter, a state senator, in the first Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 survey of the race last month. Potter is expected to get his party’s endorsement for the Senate at its state convention this weekend.
Also in ND, GOP nominee, State Representative Rick Berg, leads veteran Congressman Earl Pomeroy 51% to 44% in the race for North Dakota’s only House seat. Pomeroy voted for Obamacare and although it does not yet appear it has changed the poll numbers, it most likely will come back to haunt the Democrat incumbent in November. 58% of North Dakota voters oppose Obamacare, while only 36% favor it. Look for this House seat to flip Republican in the effort to unseat Speaker Pelosi and wrestle control from the Democrats.