Another bogus poll Gives Obama the lead…
With just five days to go before the 2012 Presidential election, the final CBS/NY Times/Quinnipiac poll is out and it has Barack Obama in the lead in Ohio, Florida and Virginia. Pie in the sky sampling gives Obama lead in poll of three swing states.
Mr. Obama now leads Romney 50 percent to 45 percent among likely voters in Ohio – exactly where the race stood on Oct. 22. His lead in Florida, however, has shrunk from nine points in September to just one point in the new survey, which shows Mr. Obama with 48 percent support and Romney with 47 percent. The president’s lead in Virginia has shrunk from five points in early October to two points in the new survey, which shows him with a 49 percent to 47 percent advantage.
However, not so fast. The small Obama lead was a result of questionable over-sampling of Democrats. As stated by Hot Air, at least the poll is consistent in their over-sampling. The CBS/NY Times/Quinnipiac polls used the following sampling, FL: 37D/30R/29I, OH: 37D/29R/30I, VA: 35D/27R/35I. The +7D in Florida, +8D in Ohio and +8D in Virginia os greater than the 2008 one in a life time wave election of Obama in 2008. No one thinks that Obama will find lighting in a bottle and recreate 2008. So why does this poll them skew the sample as if Obama will?
In each of these three states, the CBS/NYT/Q-poll shows Republicans at a lower percentage level of turnout than in the 2008 election. If one makes that assumption, it’s not too difficult to be guess that Obama might be ahead. However, that’s exactly the opposite of what all other polls rating enthusiasm are telling us what the electorate will look like on Tuesday. In fact, it’s not even what this poll shows, with Republican enthusiasm +16 over Democrats in Florida, +14 in Ohio, and +7 in Virginia.
The PJ Tatler has more on the under-sampling of Republicans in polls in order to give the appearance of Obama in the lead.
I have to ask, what do these polling outfits think they are accomplishing? No one in the future will deem them credible, so why skew a poll? If one needs to over-sample Democrats in order to show he has a lead, what good is this? No one but no one believes that the turnout will be like 2008 for Obama in 2012. If anything, Romney and the GOP have the enthusiasm on their side.
The end result is that there are going to be many polling folks with egg on their face and a lot of explaining to do on November 7th. At some point in the future polls are going to have to be checked for their sincerity prior to being released as a news. All polls are not created equal and the liberal MSM obviously has slanted much of this data to favor their candidate.
UPDATE I: If the Q-poll cannot be trusted for a +8D sampling for an Obama lead, the same has to be said for thinking that the VA Senate race is not skewed as well.
Kaine is now ahead of Allen, 50 to 46 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll. The Republican has gained ground since earlier in October, when Kaine was up 51 to 44 percent in the same poll. Among independent voters in the most recent poll, Allen was ahead of Kaine, 56 to 38 percent, according to Quinnipiac. In contrast, the poll earlier this month showed independents supporting Kaine over Allen, 51 to 42 percent.
Dick Morris Says its Time to Focus in on Next Level of Battleground States … Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota and Even New Jersey Is in Play
Last night on Fox News with Sean Hannity, Dick Morris told Hannity that it was time for the Romney campaign to target states like Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and even New Jersey are in play this year. Morris stated, “Minnesota is within if four points… And maybe even New Jersey.”
Video Hat Tip: The Gateway Pundit
Minnesota, Pennsylvania and even New Jersey in play? Could this be true or just wishful bolstering on the party of Dick Morris?
Before anyone laughs of Morris’ claims, check out the latest
Quinnipiac University poll that shows that Romney has erased a 12 point Obama lead and only trails by 4 points, 50% to 46%. What gives Romney pause for success in the Keystone state? As referenced by Jammie Wearing Fool, the poll sampling is +8D.
In today’s survey, men back Romney 54 – 43 percent, compared to a 49 – 48 percent split September 26. Women back Obama 57 – 39 percent, little changed from last month. White voters back Romney 53 – 43 percent while black voters back Obama 97 – 1 percent. White Catholic voters go Republican 56 – 43 percent. Voters with college degrees back the president 54 – 43 percent while voters without degrees are divided with 49 percent for Obama and 47 percent for Romney.
Only 7 percent of Pennsylvania likely voters say they might change their mind in the next 21 days.
“Gov. Mitt Romney is coming on strong in the Keystone State, especially among white Catholics,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
In Wisconsin, Obama only has a 2.3% lead over Romney in the RCP average polling. If Romney is polling well in this next level of so-called swing states, imagine how well he is doing in the battleground states? And, although I do not believ that NJ is in play; however, if Romney ever won the Garden state, we would be looking at a Reagan/Carter-lik landslide.
Barack Obama Widens Lead Over Romney in Swing States Ohio, Florida & PA with a Skewed Sampling of D+9 and Greater (Update: Polls Questioned as Bunk)
All Polls are not created equal … some are just skewed numbers meant to fit the liberal MSM and Democrat narrative …
Yet another example of the fraud that the MSM is trying to perpetrate on the Americans people to try depress the GOP vote turnout by claiming the swing state races are over. The fraud this time is courtesy of the New York Times and Qunnipiac. It has become obvious that polls can no longer be taken at face value or believed unless one takes the time t dig down to the data sampling. However, the liberal, corrupt media complex is hoping, they are praying that a lazy America does not. As Macsmind says. knock it of NYT, the GOP is coming out to vote in 2012.
For weeks, Republicans in Ohio have been watching with worry that the state’s vital 18 electoral votes were trending away from Mitt Romney. The anxiety has been similar in Florida, where Republicans are concerned that President Obama is gaining the upper hand in the fight for the state’s 29 electoral votes.
Those fears are affirmed in the findings of the latest Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News polls of likely voters in both states, which show that Mr. Obama has widened his lead over Mr. Romney and is outperforming him on nearly every major campaign issue, even though about half said they were disappointed in Mr. Obama’s presidency.
The polls, along with interviews with supporters and advisers in the nation’s two largest battleground states, lay bare an increasingly urgent challenge facing Mr. Romney as he prepares for his next chance to move the race in his favor, at the first debate with Mr. Obama next week. Mr. Romney’s burden is no longer to win over undecided voters, but also to woo back the voters who seem to be growing a little comfortable with the idea of a second term for Mr. Obama.
The New York Times, in collaboration with Quinnipiac University and CBS News, is tracking the presidential race with recurring polls in six states. In Ohio — which no Republican has won the presidency without — Mr. Obama is leading Mr. Romney 53 percent to 43 percent in the poll. In Florida, the president leads Mr. Romney 53 to 44 percent in the poll.
The surveys, which had margins of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points for each candidate, also included a Pennsylvania poll, where Mr. Obama is leading Mr. Romney by 12 percentage points.
HOG WASH … However, a funny, no a hideous and blatantly fraud happened on the way to the 2012 elections in the polling. The in the tank for Obama media has been skewing the polling sampling so bad for Obama that of course they are going to show that the Obamamessiah is leading. The latest skewed sampling by the NY Times/Qunnipiac has lead to a poll that shows Obama allegedly is up 10 in Ohio, 9 in Florida and 12 in Pennsylvania? If you believe that I have a bridge to sell you.
Don’t look now but the NY Times/Qunnipiac used a +D9 sample in Florida, a +9D sampling in Ohio and a +11 sample in Pennsylvania. WOW, that is a greater sampling than the 2008 once in a life-time, anomaly election of the first black President Obama. Who honestly believes that the turnout is going to be anything like 2008? However, this poll thinks even more D’s are going to turn out.
It looks like this fact was not lost either over at Jammie Wearing Fool … “So Obama is up 9 in Florida with a D+9 sample, up 10 in Ohio with a D+9 sample and up 12 in Pennsylvania with a D+11 sample” What a coincidence, eh? Is it a close race, yes. Does Romney have a lot of work to do between now and election day, yes. However, to purposely present an obvious skewed poll as if it was fact and then have the liberal MSM run with it as news is nothing more than Obama propaganda.
Such a poll is not even worth adding to the RCP average of polling as it is so badly skewed, even when averaging it with other polls it brings up the polling number for Obama. Shameful, simply shameful.
UPDATE I: From NewsBusters, Quinnipiac Pollster Admits: ‘Probably Unlikely’ That Electorate Will Feature Massive Dem Skew. Gee, YA THINK? In order for this poll to be considered valid, Democrats would have to come out in record numbers even greater than 2008. Sorry, I have to break the orgasmic MSM’s bubble, but that ain’t happening.
Despite not believing that Democrats would have a 9-point advantage, Brown defended his organization, claiming that he and his colleagues were not intentionally trying to skew their sample size:
“We didn’t set out to oversample Democrats,” he protested. “We did our normal, random digit dial way of calling people. And there were, these are likely voters. They had to pass a screen.”
But what if that screen is simply not enough? The 2012 presidential election is unlikely to have an electorate which is similar to the ones before it. In the 2008 election, young and black voters turned out in record numbers and voted in even higher percentages for Obama. As specific surveys of these two voter groups have shown, however, both are dispirited this time around and are less likely to turn out for Democrats.
And So It Begins … CBS Poll has Obama – Romney Dead Heat, Tied in Virginia after Obama’s Roanoke Incident
DRIP, DRIP, DRIP … And so it begins, could this be the beginning of the end for Barack Obama after his ill advised Roanoke incident where he stated, If you’ve got a business … you didn’t build that. Somebody else made that happen.”
A new CBS News poll has the Presidential race it a dead heat, where Mitt Romney is ahead of Obama 47% to 46%. It actually gets worse for Obama than the poll would indicate. The CBS poll is with “registered” voters, one where Obama usually is ahead in handily. It is the “likely” voter polls where Obama tends to struggle. Also, the poll shows that Republicans are more enthusiastic than Democrats this time around. Real Clear Politics shows that the race is getting much closer.
Republicans are more enthusiastic than Democrats when it comes to voting in this election, though just one in three registered voters overall are more enthusiastic than they were in the past. Roughly half of Republicans say they are more enthusiastic compared to past elections – up from 36 percent in March – while just 27 percent of Democrats say they same.
One in five registered voters with a candidate choice said they still might change their mind. The percentage of those willing to switch was essentially the same for both candidates.
Forty-five percent of registered voters say they are paying close attention to the campaign, and another 38 percent say they are paying some attention. Seventeen percent say they are paying little or no attention.
Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are now tied in Virgina according to a recent Quinnipiac poll. Obama narrowly won VA in the 2008 Presidential election; however, as pointed out by the Weekly Standard, the polls are starting to trend to Romney. One must remember, polls are snap shots in time, it is the trend line that is important.
The pollsters note that this signals a sizable shift in Romney’s direction: “This compares to a 50 – 42 percent lead for President Obama in a March 20 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University and a 47 – 42 percent Obama lead June 7.”
“Virginia voters are sharply split along gender and political lines about the presidential race. The two candidates equally hold their own political bases and are splitting the key independent vote down the middle,” Quinnipiac’s Peter Brown says.
According to The Hill, the poll also shows that former Sen. George Allen (R-VA.) with a 46-44 percent lead over former Democratic Gov. Tim Kaine in the state’s race for US Senate.
An astute analysis made at Jammie Wearing Fool, “Gee, you suppose calling Romney a felon, compounded with Obama’s shift into full-blown Socialist mode is hurting him? Whodathunkit?” Yup, the silly season is about to come to an end and the American people who are “tired of being tired,” are about to take a good look at who and what Obama is all about and say, we cannot take another 4 years of this.
Hope & Change? Barack Obama Sinks to Historic Lows Among Blue Collar Men to 28% … Issue with Independents as Well
Yet another record for President Barack Obama. As reported at the National Journal, Barack Obama sinks to historic lows among white blue color workers. According to the Quinnipiac and ABC/WAPO polls, Obama has sunk to 29% and 28% respectively among this demographic. Wow, is it possible that Obama could have polled worse than Jimmy Carter … Yes he can!!!
The new Quinnipiac University and ABC/Washington Post national surveys out this week converge on one key conclusion: as the election nears, President Obama is sinking to historic lows among the group most consistently hostile to him.
Throughout his career on the national stage, Obama has struggled among white men without a college education. But in these latest surveys, he has fallen to a level of support among them lower than any Democratic nominee has attracted in any election since 1980, according to an upcoming National Journal analysis of exit polls from presidential elections.
Though pollsters at each organization caution that the margins of error are substantial when looking at subgroups such as this, each poll shows erosion within that margin of error for Obama with these working-class white men. The new Quinnipiac poll shows Obama attracting just 29 percent of non-college white men, down from 32 percent in their most recent national survey in April, according to figures provided by Douglas Schwartz, April Radocchio and Ralph Hansen of Quinnipiac. The ABC/Washington Post survey found Obama drawing just 28 percent of non-college white men, down from 34 percent in their May survey, according to figures provided by ABC Pollster Gary Langer. Romney drew 56 percent of the non-college white men in Quinnipiac and 65 percent in the ABC/Washington Post survey.
But we all know what Obama refers to these folks as … racists.
However, Obama may have even more significant issues to deal with Independent voters. Obama finds himself trailing Romney badly with Indies which makes this poll some what suspect as how can Obama be so far behind with Independent voters in the ABC-WAPO poll and yet it be a tie? Hmm?
Digging into the crosstabs of our ABC/Washington Post poll it’s clear that Obama has a significant problem with independent voters. On every measure, independents are significantly more disappointed with the president and more open to a Mitt Romney message.
While 45 percent of voters overall say they approve of Obama’s handling of the economy, just 37 percent of independents believe that. Obama has a 12 point advantage among all voters on the issue of “who has presented a clearer plan for dealing with the economy – Obama or Romney?” But among independents that flips to an eight point advantage for Romney.
The presumptive Republican Presidential candidate Mitt Romney surges in Florida over Barack Obama.
According to the most recent Quinnipiac poll, Romney is up 6% over Obama and leads the incumbent President in the Sunshine state 47% to 41%. This is quite a statement for Romney, taking the lead in the key battleground state of Florida. What seems to be driving the poll is the 45 approve – 55% disapprove of Obama job approval and the 58% yes – 30% no likability of Romney.
Gov. Mitt Romney holds a 47 – 41 percent lead over President Barack Obama in Florida, where 63 percent of voters say the president’s support of same-sex marriage will not affect their vote, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Another 25 – 11 percent of voters, including 23 – 9 percent among independent voters, say Obama’s support of gay marriage makes them less likely to support his candidacy.
Adding Florida U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio to the GOP ticket would give the Republican Romney/Rubio team a 49 – 41 percent lead over President Obama and Vice President Joe Biden.
Romney’s lead in the horse race compares to a 44 – 43 percent tie in a May 3 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University and a 49 – 42 percent Obama lead March 28.
Florida is a truly representative swing state and could spell political reelection doom for Obama and what the landscape will look like in the rest of the battleground states up for grabs in the 2012 Presidential election.
Obama and Democrats still have to defend Obamacare in the 2012 elections … good luck.
A dark cloud continues to hover over Barack Obama and his reelection bid for 2012, his signature piece of legislation, Obamacare, is as unpopular as ever. Most voters according to a recent Quinnipiac poll want the SCOTUS, the Supreme Court of the United States, to over turn it. By a 48% to 40% Americans want nothing to do with Obamacare, including Independents who oppose the healthcare law 45%-38%.
A new poll shows that most voters want the Supreme Court to overturn President Obama’s health care law, with opposition and support falling largely along party lines.
Overall, voters oppose the law by 48%-40%, according to the Quinnipiac University survey. Democrats support the Obama health care effort by 70%-19%, while Republicans oppose it by 86%-8%.
The Quinnipiac survey found independent voters opposed to the law by 45%-38%.
Full poll can be seen HERE.
However, the public’s disastrous for Obamacare is even worse than the above Quinnipiac poll states. According to the Real Clear Politics average polling for Obamacare, American voters oppose the law 49.8% to 38.7%. Barack Obama and Democrats in the House and US Senate are going to have a difficult time explaining to voters why they voted against the will of the American people. Good luck to Democrats like Ben Nelson in Nebraska and Bill Nelson in Florida explaining their way out of this.
Key state battle ground polling troubles for Obama … looks like they cling to more than their “guns and Bibles”.
In the 2008 Presidential election, Barack Obama defeated John McCain in Pennsylvania 54.7% to 44.3%. In April 2009, just after Barack Obama started as President and and just after the stimulus bill was passed, Obama was at 61% approval in the Keystone state. Now according to a recent Muhlenberg College poll released Friday,Obama has dropped to a 35% job approval rating among registered voters. OUCH!!!
President Barack Obama, who political experts say will need a win in Pennsylvania to retain the White House, dipped to 35 percent approval among the state’s registered voters, according to a Muhlenberg College poll released Friday.
The results come on the heels of a bad week in polls for Obama that showed him first dropping to 39 percent nationwide in Gallup’s daily tracking poll. Then another set of Gallup results Thursday showed only 26 percent of Americans approve of how Obama is handling the economy.
The unemployment rate in PA is presently 9% and Pennsylvanians seem pessimistic about the economy.Once again Barack Obama is being bit by the terrible US economy and the fact that he has promised jobs and delivered nothing. Many in Pennsylvania believe that Obama’s policies have negatively affected the economy.
Asked if Obama’s policies have helped or hurt the economy, just 23 percent said helped, 41 percent said hurt and 32 percent said his policies haven’t made a difference.
Hot Air brings up some important voting registration demographic, as “Democrats enjoy a substantial registration advantage over Republicans, going well into double digits.” Earlier this month, a Quinnipiac poll had Obama with a 54% – 43% disapproval among Pennsylvania voters. There is no way that Barack Obama wins reelection if he loses Pennsylvania. However, Obama is going to have difficulty winning many states that he carried in 2008 like VA, NC, FL, OH, IN and NH. A look into the 2012 election crystal ball will show that not only will Obama have trouble in traditional swing states, or battleground states, but there will be new states that were once considered “Blue” that will be in play like Wisconsin and Michigan.
President Barack Obama’s Sinking Poll Numbers … Low Job Approval & 50% Say He Does not Deserve to be Re-elected in 2012
President Barack Obama’s poll numbers are tanking …
As Obama’s dithering continues so does the downward spiral of his poll numbers. Obama’s indecision and lack of a clear message in the “kinetic military operation” WAR in Libya, Obamacare debacle and additional waiver requests, continues poor economy and elevated oil prices have all added to Obama’s poor job approval numbers. According to the most recent Quinnipiac University National Poll, The One’s job approval rating is at 48% disapprove and only 42% approve.
Making matter worse for Obama, 50% do not believe that Barack Obama deserves a second term as President while only 41% believe he does. Hardly a good sign for an incumbent President seeking reelection in 2012. The lack of leadership and incoherent waffling message to the American people on any topic these days is wearing thin.
American voters disapprove 48 – 42 percent of the job President Barack Obama is doing and say 50 – 41 percent he does not deserve to be re-elected in 2012,both all-time lows, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
This compares to a 46 – 46 percent job approval rating and a 45 – 47 percent split on the President’s re-election in a March 3 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. In a hypothetical 2012 matchup, President Obama gets 36 percent of the vote to 37 percent for an unnamed Republican challenger.
Democrats approve 80 – 13 percent of the job Obama is doing, but disapproval is 81 – 9 percent among Republicans and 50 – 39 percent among independent voters. Men disapprove 52 – 41 percent while women split 44 – 44 percent.
Why are these polling numbers so alarming? These are the lowest job approval numbers for Obama in the Quinnipiac poll, even lower than any in 2010. Obama even loses to an unnamed GOP candidate in this poll 37% to 36%. How can that be good news for any incumbent politician?
Barack Obama also failed miserably in this poll in handling the federal budget 64% disapprove – 30% approve, the economy 60% disapprove – 30% approve, foreign policy disapprove 47% – approve 41%, healthcare disapprove 55% – 38% approve.
More at Wake Up America with the trending downward polling data of Barack Obama. 2012 is right around the corner.
Bad News for Incumbent Obama … Quinnipiac Poll: Ohio Voters Divided On Second Term For Obama, 45% – 46%
Its never a good sign when an incumbent politician polls under 50% … such is the case with Barack Obama in Ohio and whether the voters think he deserves a second term.
According to a recent Quinnipiac Poll, 45% of Ohio voters think he deserves a second term, while 46% disapprove. Ohio, is a key swing state that Obama carried in 2008; however, went strongly Republican in the 2010 midterm elections. As stated by the Hot Air Pundit, Ohio is a must win for Republicans. However, the same could be said for Obama.
Ohio voters are split 45 – 46 percent on whether President Barack Obama deserves a second term, but they favor him over an unnamed Republican 2012 challenger 41 – 34 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
President Obama has a split 47 – 48 percent job approval rating, compared to 49 – 46 percent in a January 20 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.
The problem for Obama in any swing state that he won in 2010 is that he now has a record to defend. Obama can not longer talk and “Hope & Change” or that he is not GWB. He will have to defend Obamacare, the economy and his continues lack of leadership when crisis occur. After being against Bush going to war, Obama has his own war now to defend in Libya.
Polls at this point are pretty much irrelevent; however, the real issues will be what is the economy, jobs, gas prices and the instability in the Middle East going to look like. Voters will have a clear choice in 2012 to decide on in Ohio and across the United States, the failed liberal/socialist policies of a weak president or a return to more conservative, capitalist ways.
One thing is for certain, Obamamania will not exists … We the People know exactly who and what Obama is. The real question is not whether Obama deservess a second term, it’s whether the United States can stand an