There have been so many polls and so many divergent polling models that have oversampled democrats that something is going to have to give come election day. The voter turnout will make the difference and it is hard to believe that democrats will come out for Obama as they did in 2008. Romney has the enthusiasm on his side. They question is whether it will be enough to carry him over the finish line.
That being said, there appears to be a late surge for Mitt Romney just two days before the 2012 Presidential election. Recent polls from Rasmussen have Romney up in Colorado, 50%-47%.
A Pittsburgh Tribune poll out today has the race a tie in the Keystone state. TIED, PENNSYLVANIA? Is this the reason why Romney bout ads and is going to Pennsylvania in the days heading up to the election.
“They’re both in here because of exactly what you’re seeing” in this poll, said Jim Lee, president of Susquehanna Polling & Research, which surveyed 800 likely voters Oct. 29-31. Most of the interviews occurred after Hurricane Sandy inundated Eastern and Central Pennsylvania. The poll’s error margin is 3.46 percentage points.
Nearly 60 percent of people say the country is on the wrong track, and economic concerns continue to dominate. Almost half of likely voters say economic issues are the primary driver of their choice for president.
We had previously discussed the rather surprising poll out of Michigan.
The battleground state of Ohio has conflicting polls. The Hill had Romney over Obama 49% – 47%. The Columbus Dispatch has their poll going to Obama 50% to 48%. However, the poll sampling is 40% Democrat, 36% Republican, 21% independent.
And now for the unheard of, in deep blue Minnesota, among likely voters Romney is actually leading Obama, 47% to 46%. Really folks if Obama is not going to win sold blue states like Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin by double digits, he has a real problem.
Hmm, is Michigan really in play and a tie going into election day? According to a brand new poll from Foster McCollum White Baydoun the race is tied at 47%.
Republican Nominee Mitt Romney 46.86%
President Barack Obama 46.24%
Another candidate 4.94%
Foster McCollum White Baydoun (FMW)B, a national public opinion polling and voter analytics consulting firm based in Michigan and representing the combined resources of Foster McCollum White & Associates (Troy Michigan) and Baydoun Consulting (Dearborn Michigan) conducted a telephone-automated polling random survey of Michigan registered and most likely November 2012 General election voters for Fox 2 News Detroit to determine their voting and issue preferences on the Presidential election.
I find it a bit hard to believe the race is tied in Michigan. However, I also find it a bit unimaginable that that a failed president like Obama is even being considered for reelection.
If this turns out to be true and Michigan is tied or say Obama wins the state by single digits, that could be troubling for Obama in OH, PA, MN. In 2008 Obama won Michigan easily by 16%. One has to wonder that with Obama’s auto bailout how come he is not ahead in Michigan by +20?
Team Obama, his minions and the in the tank liberal MSM have touted that Obama was overwhelmingly ahead in his ground game and early voting. NOT SO FAST.
Last night Senator Rob Portman (OH-R) spoke with Sean Hannity discussing voting in Ohio and Mitt Romney’s chances of victory. According to latest reports, 230,000 fewer Democrats have voted early in Ohio this year. Also in contrast, 40,000 more Republicans have voted early in Ohio this year.
Gallup states that Romney is up by 7 over Obama in early voting. We will only know on election eve who has been telling the truth when it comes voter turnout.
Minnesota a battleground state?
A virtual tie in Minnesota between Mitt Romney and Barack Obama? Really, could this be true? The mere fact that we are talking about it this late in the game for the 2012 Presidential election is hardly a good think for President Obama.
According to a Minnesota Star Tribune poll, Mitt Romney only trails Obama by 3 points, 47% to 44%. Just last month Obama had an 8 percent lead in the Land of 10,000 Lakes. This is eye brow raising to say the least.
As the presidential race tightens across the country, a new Star Tribune Minnesota Poll has found that it is narrowing here as well, with President Obama holding a 3-point lead and Republican Mitt Romney making gains in the state.
The poll shows Obama with support from 47 percent of likely voters and Romney earning backing from 44 percent — a lead within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Last month, Obama had an 8-percentage point advantage in the Minnesota Poll. Romney has apparently cut into the Democrat’s advantage among women since then and picked up support from Minnesotans who were previously undecided or said they would vote for a third-party candidate.
Hot Air has a breakdown of the voting demographics and how Obama is struggling mightily. Obama won Minnesota in 2008 by 10% over John McCain, with Obama only polling at 47% with less than 10 days to go, that can’t be good for Team Obama.
In 2008, Obama had a 19-point edge in the gender gap, +3 among men and +16 among women. This time, Obama has only a +1 — he’s up 14 among women but down 13 among men. Obama still leads by 6 among independents, which he won by 17 points in 2008, but he’s only got 43%. Late breakers are not likely to flow to the incumbent at this stage of the election; if the were inclined to support Obama, they’d already be in his corner now.
That’s true of the overall number as well. If Obama can only get to 47% in the Star Tribune poll with nine days left to go before the election in Minnesota, which has gone Democrat every presidential election over the last four years, this state is in play — and that’s why both campaigns are suddenly starting to spend money here.
If Minnesota is truly a battleground state in 2012 and Obama has to worry about losing the state, he could be in for a long, long election night.
UPDATE I: Blue Crab Boulevard asks, could this be another “wave” election? It is possible as Obama is under performing in many states that he easily won in 2008. States that he barely and surprisingly won in 2008 like Indiana, North Carolina, Colorado, New Hampshire, Florida and Virgina are all but gone in 2012. However, it is states like Minnesota, Wisconsin, Nevada and Pennsylvania that he easily won in 2008 that are actually in play this close to election. Even in solid blue states like New Jersey, California and Connecticut, Obama is under performing.
It Looks Like Its Over in Florida, Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9 Poll Along I-4 Corridor Has Romney Ahead Obama 51% to 45% Among Likely Voters
It appears the fat lady may be singing in Florida …
According to a recent poll in the battleground state of Florida, the Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9 poll of likely voters along the I-4 corridor finds Mitt Romney leading Barack Obama 51% to 45%. According to RCP, Romney is up by 1.8% and all polls have him leading. Doug Ross remind us that Suffolk had stopped polling in Florida. It does seem that the Romney camp can count FLA in the win category.
It has been a fundamental rule of Florida politics for decades: Statewide campaigns are won and lost on the I-4 corridor.
Today that celebrated swing-voter swath stretching from Tampa Bay to Daytona Beach is poised to deliver Florida’s 29 electoral votes to Mitt Romney.
An exclusive Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9 poll of likely voters along the Interstate 4 corridor finds Romney leading Obama 51 percent to 45 percent, with 4 percent undecided.
“Romney has pretty much nailed down Florida,” said Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling and Research, which conducted the poll for the Times and its media partners. “Unless something dramatically changes — an October surprise, a major gaffe — Romney’s going to win Florida.”
Just the other day Romney drew massive crowds in Pensacola.
Bad news for Barack Obama in Iowa and fantastic new for Mitt Romney … Des Moines Register endorses ROMNEY!!!
The Des Moines Register has changed their 2008 endorsement of Barack Obama to a 2012 endorsement of Republican Presidential candidate Mitt Romney. For the first time in 40 years the Des Moines Register is backing a Republican over a Democrat. The Register cited the number one issue of the economy as their reason for the endorsement.
American voters are deeply divided about this race. The Register’s editorial board, as it should, had a vigorous debate over this endorsement. Our discussion repeatedly circled back to the nation’s single most important challenge: pulling the economy out of the doldrums, getting more Americans back in the workforce in meaningful jobs with promising futures, and getting the federal government on a track to balance the budget in a bipartisan manner that the country demands.
What did they think of Obama in the end, it’s the economy stupid. This should provide great insight to voters as to just how bad Obama has gummed up the economic job recovery. For the first time in 40 years the paper endorses a Republic over a Democrat for President. That should speal volumes to Iowans. The paper stated that they thought Obama’s efforts to fix the economy have fallen short and there was nothing to believe that the same would not continue to be the case if given another four years.
“The president’s best efforts to resuscitate the stumbling economy have fallen short. Nothing indicates it would change with a second term in the White House.”
Maybe the Des Moines Register’s final decision to not endorse Barack Obama came from Obama’s comment to them in what was supposed to originally be an off the record interview, that Obama had no regrets on prioritizing Obamacare over jobs in his first two years.
The president was also asked about his decision to spend his substantial political capital, and exploit his large Congressional majorities, to aggressively push his partisan health care law, rather than in pursuit of other economic priorities. Obama’s answer? “Absolutely” no regrets:
QUESTION: “Some say you had a super majority in your first two years and had this incredible opportunity, but because of what you were talking about, as you were running, you had to go to get Obamacare done. Do you have any regrets taking on some of the economic issues, some of the issues that we’re talking about for your second term, that when you had the chance, so to speak, during your first — do you have any regrets that you didn’t do that at that time?”
OBAMA: “Absolutely not, Laura.”
Will this endorsement shake up the presidential race in Iowa? RCP has the average of polling at +2.3% Obama; however, that is with a rather suspect +8 Obama NBC/WSJ/Marist poll. Rasmussen has it an even tie.
UPDATE I: As reported at NewsBusters, the libs are in disbelief and trying to trivialize the endorsement as a joke. Actually Libs, the only joke has been that who has been in the White House the past 4 years. Even more sadly, the sick joke has been one perpetrated on America, and its citizens are not laughing.
Clint Eastwood Political Pro-Romney Ad that States WE Cannot Survive an Obama Second Term, “The Future of our Country is at Stake.”
Dirty Harry asks, do you feel lucky America? Well do ya? Not under the presidency of Barack Obama.
Clint Eastwood was right about Barack Obama being an “empty chair” and he is correct that “the future of our country is at stake.” America, we cannot afford another four more years of Barack Obama.
“Obama’s second term would be a rerun of the first, and our country just couldn’t survive that.”
“For the last few years America has been knocked down. Twenty three million people can’t find full-time work. “Obama’s second term would be a rerun of the first, and our country just couldn’t survive that. We need someone who can turn it around fast. That man is Mitt Romney.”
“There is not much time left, and the future of our country is at stake.”
The political ad will be seen in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia.
Did You Miss This … Rush Limbaugh Discusses the Drive By MSM Shocked by Focus Group Voter Reaction to Debate between Romney & Obama
More MSM bias … they just were stunned that voters reacted positive to Mitt Romney, Just Stunned!!!
If the liberal MSM was shocked by the reaction of focus group voters following the third and final presidential debate, they are in for a doozy election eve. The CBS focus group of undecided voters in Ohio gave the debate win to Mitt Romney. OUCH, that was not what the liberal media wanted to hear.
Rush Limbaugh discusses the shock of the MSM as only he can.
To the audio sound bites! This morning on CBS This Morning, I have a portion here of National Correspondent Dean Reynolds’ report on a panel of undecided Ohio voters who watched last night’s debate and what they got from it.
Now, you can’t see it, obviously. This is radio. But Norah O’Donnell’s face in this sound bite is priceless. These people cannot believe what they are hearing. What we have here is an undecided Ohio voter on this panel, Norah O’Donnell and the cohost Charlie Rose. And they start off here with Dean Reynolds, who is a CBS correspondent in Ohio.
REYNOLDS: When it was all over, they were asked who won. The president got two votes. Governor Romney got six. All had made up their minds, at least for now.
Is Barack Obama giving up and reading the Romney handwriting on the wall in Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and Colorado? As stated at Hot Air, one has to look way down in the article to find this gem of info that is the most significant part of the entire piece.
What also became clear after the dust began to settle from the rumble on Long Island was the electoral map has narrowed and Obama’s team, while conceding nothing publicly, is circling the wagons around Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. Plouffe said that Obama remains strong in all four states, but he would not discuss the specifics of internal polling or voter-contact analytics, saying only that Obama has “significant leads” in all four places.
It is uncharacteristic of Team Obama to concede any terrain, but Plouffe offered no such assurances about Obama’s position in North Carolina, Virginia, or Florida. Romney advisers have seen big gains in all three states and now consider wins likely, although not guaranteed, in all three. They are similarly upbeat about prospects in Colorado but not confident enough to predict victory. That Plouffe left Colorado off his list of states where Obama’s leading and can withstand a Romney surge might be telling…
Romney, according to RCP, has 191 electoral votes. If you add Florida (29), North Carolina (15), and Virginia (13), that brings his total to 248 electoral votes. Add Colorado (9) –which neither campaign is prepared to claim or concede–and Romney’s total rises to 257 electoral votes. If Romney wins Ohio (18) in addition to these states, he would have 275 electoral votes. If Romney loses Ohio, he would need to win Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire to reach 273 electoral votes.
As Hot Air stated, is Team Obama doing electoral triage? Has Romney’s surge in so many battleground states and in states that were supposed to be lean Obama that it is stretching Obama’s resources? Is Obama’s vulnerability in so many states coming back to haunt him? It would appear that Obama may be redrawing his fire line.
It’s not that Romney has insurmountable leads in FL, VA, and NC, it’s that Team O has to decide how to allocate what’s left of its campaign treasury down the stretch and there are better bets for them than those three states. Triage, in other words. Mitt’s up 4.7 points on average in North Carolina, which would be tough for O to make up, and 2.5 points in Florida, which might be doable but would be hugely expensive in terms of reserving enough ad time to make a dent. I’m a little surprised to see Virginia included — O actually leads there by eight-tenths of a point, although Romney’s (narrowly) won the last three polls, so maybe Obama’s campaign figures it’s not worth resisting that momentum in a state they don’t really need.
Dick Morris Says its Time to Focus in on Next Level of Battleground States … Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota and Even New Jersey Is in Play
Last night on Fox News with Sean Hannity, Dick Morris told Hannity that it was time for the Romney campaign to target states like Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and even New Jersey are in play this year. Morris stated, “Minnesota is within if four points… And maybe even New Jersey.”
Video Hat Tip: The Gateway Pundit
Minnesota, Pennsylvania and even New Jersey in play? Could this be true or just wishful bolstering on the party of Dick Morris?
Before anyone laughs of Morris’ claims, check out the latest
Quinnipiac University poll that shows that Romney has erased a 12 point Obama lead and only trails by 4 points, 50% to 46%. What gives Romney pause for success in the Keystone state? As referenced by Jammie Wearing Fool, the poll sampling is +8D.
In today’s survey, men back Romney 54 – 43 percent, compared to a 49 – 48 percent split September 26. Women back Obama 57 – 39 percent, little changed from last month. White voters back Romney 53 – 43 percent while black voters back Obama 97 – 1 percent. White Catholic voters go Republican 56 – 43 percent. Voters with college degrees back the president 54 – 43 percent while voters without degrees are divided with 49 percent for Obama and 47 percent for Romney.
Only 7 percent of Pennsylvania likely voters say they might change their mind in the next 21 days.
“Gov. Mitt Romney is coming on strong in the Keystone State, especially among white Catholics,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
In Wisconsin, Obama only has a 2.3% lead over Romney in the RCP average polling. If Romney is polling well in this next level of so-called swing states, imagine how well he is doing in the battleground states? And, although I do not believ that NJ is in play; however, if Romney ever won the Garden state, we would be looking at a Reagan/Carter-lik landslide.