Democrat Michelle Nunn Fading in Georgia Senate Race, So Is the Democrat Chances of Control of US Senate … David Perdue Takes Poll Lead
GEORGIA, WAKE THE HELL UP, THIS IS NOT YOUR FATHER’S DEMOCRAT PARTY AND MICHELLE NUNN IS HARDLY HER FATHER SAM NUNN …
There was a point in time in the George Senate race for the retiring Republican Saxby Chambliss, that Democrat challenger Michelle Nunn had a chance of pulling off the upset and shift what has been a red state to a blue Senate seat. How much of that though was because of a liberal media pushing Michelle Nunn as the daughter of former Georgia Senator Sam Nun? Georgia, do you really want to be the state that continues to empower Harry Reid and President Barack Obama? Sorry, but Michelle is not Sam Nunn.
However, the early favorably polling for Michelle Nunn seems to be subsiding as Republican David Perdue has taken the lead in the polls. According to the most recent RCP polls, Perdue is up by 2.2%.
Just remember Georgia, a vote for Michelle Nunn, is a vote for Democrat Senate Majority Leader and President Barack Obama.
For a brief time in mid-October, some Democrats believed Michelle Nunn, the party’s Senate candidate in Georgia, could be the firewall that prevents a Republican takeover of the Senate. If Nunn could win the seat opened by retiring GOP Sen. Saxby Chambliss, then Republicans would need to pick up seven, not six, seats to take control.
In half-a-dozen polls taken over a two-week period in the middle of October, Nunn led Republican opponent David Perdue in five, while the candidates tied in one. Democratic optimism surged. “National Democrats have just decided to pour $1 million into this race in Georgia, a sign of how important a victory here would be to their effort to beat the odds and hold on to control of the Senate,” the Wall Street Journal reported Oct. 17. More pro-Nunn money came after that, with a barrage of ads focusing mostly on accusations the businessman Perdue outsourced thousands of Georgia jobs.
Now, things have changed. Perdue has recovered from the attacks — he indisputably helped create thousands of jobs in his career — and in the last six polls, taken since Oct. 16, Perdue has led in five, while one was a tie. In the RealClearPolitics average of polls, Perdue is up by 2.2 percentage points. In the newest poll, a NBC News-Marist survey released Sunday, Perdue leads by four points, 48 percent to 44 percent.
Republicans Take a Big Lead in Colorado Early Voting … Will Cory Gardner (R) Defeat Incumbent Sen. Udall
COLORADO ROCKY MOUNTAIN HIGH FOR THE GOP IN EARLY VOTING …
More good news for the GOP in Colorado as early reports have 104,000 more Republicans than Democrats had cast their ballots as the state conducts its first major mail-in election. I guess Democrat voter are too busy getting stoned. Republican Cory Gardner is leading incumbent Democrat Senator Mark Udall in the RCP polling by 3.8%. Also amazingly, Republican challenger Bob Beauprez is tied with incumbent Democrat Gov. John Hickenlooper.
Republicans are taking a big lead in early voting in Colorado.
A report from the Secretary of State on Friday showed that 104,000 more Republicans than Democrats had cast their ballots as the state conducts its first major mail-in election.
Voters can also drop off ballots at polling stations and register through Election Day.
Republicans usually lead in early returns in Colorado but rarely by such hefty margins. Democrats and some observers expect that lead to shrink by Election Day.
Democrat Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid Says Senate Control Hinges on Iowa … Des Moines, Iowa Poll Says Republican Joni Ernst Up by 7 Over Bruce Braley
DINGY HARRY SAYS IF REPUBLICAN JONI ERNST WINS IOWA, DEMOCRATS WILL SQUEAL LIKE A CASTRATED PIG …
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid says that if Republican challenger Joni Ernst wins the Iowa Senate race against Bruce Baily, I mean Braley, then the Democratic can kiss the US Senate majority goodbye. Truth be told, that is not entirely true as Iowa was never initially considered a Senate seat that was in play for the GOP to win a net 6 seats to gain control of the Senate. However, an Ernst win in the “Hawkeye” state probably means that the GOP will win more than a net six seats. However, that being said and if that is what Harry Reid really believes, then Reid could not have been too happy with the final Des Moines Register Iowa poll before Tuesday’s election that shows that Ernst with a 7 point advantage, 51% to 44% over Braley. Did Ernst really just break the critical majority threshold and put this race away, or is this poll an outlier as the Braley camp is praying. However, even Democrats fear that Iowa is slipping away.
If Joni Ernst beats Rep. Bruce Braley in Iowa on Tuesday, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said he expects to kiss the Democratic majority goodbye.
The Nevada Democrat said if Braley wins in Iowa, Democrats will do “just fine.” And if they lose? Say hello to Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, Reid said in a conference call Saturday with the Progressive Change Campaign Committee.
“Joni Ernst would mean — coming to the United States Senate — that Mitch McConnell would be leader of the United States Senate, who agrees with her on everything.
Retired Command Sgt. Major, Chris Fox, was one of the 150 Iowa soldiers Joni Ernst led into Operation Iraqi Freedom in 2003. Hear what Chris has to say about Joni in this latest ad.
• Although a small plurality of likely voters thinks Braley has more depth on the issues, they like Ernst better than Braley on several character descriptions. They think she better reflects Iowa values, she cares more about people like them, and she’s more of a regular, down-to-earth person.
• Voters find Ernst, who has led Iowa troops in war, to be a reassuring presence on security issues, the poll shows. In the wake of news developments on the Ebola outbreak in West Africa, increasing aggressiveness of Russia and the rise of the Islamic State in the Middle East, more likely voters see Ernst as better equipped than Braley to show leadership and judgment, by at least 9 points on each issue.
• Independent voters are going Ernst’s way, 51 percent to 39 percent.
• The negativity in the race has hurt Braley more than Ernst. Forty-four percent say he has been more negative in campaign ads, compared with 32 percent for Ernst.
• Among several potential mistakes the two candidates have made, the one that stands out is Braley’s seemingly condescending remark about Republican U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley. In March, GOP operatives released caught-on-tape remarks Braley made at a private fundraiser in Texas that seemed to question the qualifications of “a farmer from Iowa without a law degree” to become the next chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee.
From RCP comes the graphic below that shows the US Senate races in play that show the many possibilities how the GOP pick up a net 6 seats to take control of Senate. Keep in mind that the Open Democrat seats in South Dakota and West Virginia are likely GOP and the Open Democrat seat in Montana is considered Safe GOP. Thus, the Republicans only need a net pickup of 3 seats from the ones below.
Please IOWA … retire Harry Reid as Senate Majority Leader!!!
In the latest FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast, Democrats still have a 27 percent chance of holding on to control of the chamber. But the more pressing question now may be the size of the Republican majority come next Congress. New polls out this weekend suggest that Republicans may not just win the six seats they need for control, but quite possibly eight seats — Republicans now have a 41.4 percent chance of doing just that.
Why? Let’s look at the map.
As for Iowa, Nate already spoke about the importance of the Des Moines Register poll that came out Saturday night, which showed Republican Joni Ernst up 51 to 44 percent over Democrat Bruce Braley. Even if that poll is too optimistic for Ernst, she has been ahead in the vast majority of public polls taken in October. FiveThirtyEight gives her a 71 percent chance to win.
But can Republicans hold on to Georgia and Kentucky? The answer, increasingly, looks to be yes.
The big political news today is that the last pre-election Iowa poll conducted on behalf of the Des Moines Register shows Ernst opening up a 7-point lead over Braley among likely voters. Jennifer Jacobs reports on the poll results here and adds 10 interesting takeaways from the poll here. The poll’s margin of error is 3.7 percent. Ernst’s lead is still within the poll’s margin of error, but the movement seems to be significant and in her direction.
You have to wonder if the late movement doesn’t signify such movement in other similar races around the country. In October the Democrats pulled out all the stops for Braley. They kept Barack Obama away from the state. They threw Michelle Obama out to prop up Braley, not once (hey, give it up for her good friend “Bruce Bailey”), but twice. They threw out Hillary Clinton.
They even threw out the Big Dog himself. They brought in Bill Clinton to argue on Braley’s behalf that we would “grow together” with Bruce.
MSNBC’s Al Sharpton on Ottawa, Quebec Terrorist Shooting: “What’s The Latest In Iowa?” … Good Grief, Hey Al, Take Off, Eh!
Broadcast journalism at it;s finest … and MSNBC wonders why their TV ratings are in the crapper.
Stuck on Stupid … Watch below, as Al Sharpton completely embarrasses himself Wednesday night during reporting on the Ottawa, Canada terrorist shooting where he throws to the reporter on the ground … “What is the latest in Iowa?” Seriously Al, really? As Bob and Doug McKenzie would say, “Don’t listen to him, he’s a hoser”. Hmm, who knew that Iowa was the capital of Canada. Hey Al just, “Take off, eh!”.
The race-baiting MSNBC host, whose inflammatory rhetoric is matched by his ignorance of the world outside New York City and Washington, D.C., threw off CBC reporter Chloe Fedio Wednesday night during an interview on Sharpton’s “Politics Nation.”
“What’s the latest tonight in Iowa?” Sharpton asked, apparently unaware Fedio was actually in the Canadian capital of Ottawa.
Des Moines Register’s new poll numbers are making Democrat Senate candidate Bruce Braley squeal like a pig …
The Republican party needs a net pick up of six US Senate seats in the 2014 midterm elections. It appears now that they may have many different ways to gain that number, including a pick up in Iowa. The latest Des Moines Register Iowa poll has Republican Joni Ernst leading Democrat Bruce Braley 44% to 38%. How bad is it for the Democrats and Braley in Iowa, Braley is not even winning his home district. Also, 2/3 of likely voters believe it is a problem that he missed a large percentage of Veterans Affairs Committee meetings in the U.S. House and 59% think his role in crafting Obamacare is a problem. Braley is also polling poorly with rural voters as only 15% support him compared with 58% for Ernst.
First debate between Iowa U.S. Senate candidates Bruce Braley and Joni Ernst
The Democratic U.S. Senate candidate is 6 points behind his GOP rival, Joni Ernst, according to The Des Moines Register’s new Iowa Poll of likely voters.
Ernst leads 44 percent to 38 percent in a race that has for months been considered deadlocked. She leads nearly 4-1 with rural voters, and is up double digits with independents.
“Very interesting, and good news not just for Ernst but also for the GOP’s chances of taking the U.S. Senate,” said national political prognosticator Larry Sabato of “Sabato’s Crystal Ball.”
Just seven months ago, political analysts considered Braley almost a shoo-in for a seat held for 30 years by liberal Democrat Tom Harkin.
Republicans need a net pickup of 6 Senate seats in the 2014 midterm elections in order to wrestle control away from Harry Reid and Democrats.
The GOP need a net pickup of 6 Senate seats in order to gain control of the US Senate. A recent NBC/Marist poll shows that although Democrat incumbent Sen. Mark Udall is still leading in Colorado, Republicans are surging in the key “red” state races in Kentucky and Arkansas. US Rep. Tom Cotton (R-AR) leads incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor by five points among likely voters, 45% to 40%. Although Kentucky is not a pickup for the GOP, some Democrats have thought that it could be a possible loss for the GOP. However, that does not appear to be the case. In reality, the GOP already is at a +3 as Republicans will pick up seats in the open Senate races formerly held by Democrats in Montana, West Virginia and South Dakota.
Other Senate seats currently held by Democrats that are now in play include Alaska, Louisiana, North Carolina, Iowa, New Hampshire and Michigan. My person opinion is that the GOP with have a net pick up of 7, possibly 8 Senate seats. If all things go right, it could be 9, but my gut feeling says this will not be a wave election like in 2010 because too many establishment Republicans are running and the establishment appears to have no clue that their conservative base is what wins elections. Not being Democrat light.
US Rep. Cotton (R-AR) calls Democrat Sen. Pryor a good Obama foot soldier, who was the deciding vote for Obamacare and who has voted with Obama 93% of the time.
Republican Senate candidates have opened up leads in the key states of Arkansas and Kentucky, putting them in a strong position to win back the U.S. Senate, according to new NBC News/Marist polls.
But another NBC/Marist poll shows Democrats holding on in the blue state of Colorado, suggesting a limit to the gains that Republicans could make in November.
In Arkansas, Rep. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., leads incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor by five points among likely voters, 45 percent to 40 percent, with two minor candidates getting a combined 5 percent.
In Kentucky, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., is ahead of Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes by eight points among likely voters, 47 percent to 39 percent, with Libertarian David Patterson getting another 8 percent.
And in Colorado, incumbent Sen. Mark Udall, D-Colo., is up by six points over Rep. Cory Gardner, 48 percent to 42 percent.
Barack Obama’s toxic presidency could cost Democrats control of the US Senate in 2014.
In 2008 many Democrats were swept into office on Barack Obama’s coattails like Mark Begich in Alaska, Kay Hagen in North Carolina, Jeff Merkley in Oregon, Al Franken in Minnesota, Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire, and Democrat victories in Red states like Max Baucus in Montana, Tim Johnson in South Dakota, Mark Pryor in Arkansas and Mary Landrieu in Louisiana. However, that was then, this is now and 2014 presents the Democrat party with a Barack Obama “no-fly” zone to stay away from Senate races. From Obamamessiah to the toxic president in just 6 short years. Other than going to maybe Minnesota or Oregon, Obama will be a no show in the rest of the states. However, voters do not let that fool you … all of the Democrats above are fully behind Barack Obama’s agenda and have voted for Obamacare and illegal’s getting amnesty. Once the election is over, all of the above Democrat Senators will go right back to doing Obama’s bidding.
In an election that Republicans want to make all about President Barack Obama, the White House is determined to make him all but disappear in the battleground states that matter.
The White House is putting the finishing touches on a post-Labor Day schedule that will send the president to states where he’s still popular, such as: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Illinois and California, Obama officials and Democratic operatives said this week.
But in the red states that will determine control of the Senate, Obama will remain scarce. That means no personal campaign visits to states like Arkansas, Alaska, Louisiana and North Carolina. He may do some targeted outreach through robocalls, digital ads and conference calls, but the campaign plan is clear: Stay away from candidates he’s already hurting.
Obama’s no-fly zone for certain Senate campaigns reflects the deep concern among Democrats about his drag on the national ticket. Obama can’t seem to get his poll numbers out of the low 40s, he’s struggled through an endless stream of foreign policy crises, and he’s the last person that many candidates want to be forced to defend on the campaign trail.
There are 36 U.S. Senate seats up for election in 2014. Of those seats, 15 are currently held by Republicans and 21 are held by Democrats. The GOP need a net pick up of 6 seats to retain control of the Senate. The control of the Senate will be determined by the below 13 states: 1 incumbent Republican, 1 open Republican, 6 Incumbent Democrat and 5 open Democrat.
- AK: Begich (D)
- AR: Pryor (D)
- CO: Udall (D)
- GA: Open (R)
- IA: Open (D)
- KY: McConnell (R)
- LA: Landrieu (D)
- MI: Open (D)
- NC: Hagan (D)
- NH: Shaheen (D)
- MT: Open (D)
- SD: Open (D)
- WV: Open (D)
State Senator Joni Ernst Wins GOP Iowa Primary Going Away … Faces Democrat Bruce Braley for Open Iowa Senate Seat
State Senator Joni Ernst wins Republican primary in Iowa, set to face Democrat Bruce Braley for US Senate race in pivotal battle in 2014 for the US Senate.
It did not take long last night after the polls closed in Iowa as the AP called the GOP US Senate primary for state senator Joni Ernst. With just 24% of precincts reporting, the AP made the call for Joni Ernst who had 53% of the vote, Conservative radio host Sam Clovis had 19%, businessman Mark Jacobs (R) had 17% and former U.S. Attorney Matt Whitaker (R) had 9%. However, by the time all the votes were counted Ernst would win the Iowa Republican senate primary by an even wider margin gaining 56.2% of the vote. Ernst easily cleared the 35 percent threshold necessary to avoid a convention nomination fight. Republican Joni Ernst will face Democrat Bruce Braley this November for the Iowa senate seat currently held by the retiring Democrat Sen. Tom Harkin.
Joni Ernst, who highlighted her ability to shoot guns and castrate hogs to overcome disinterest in a sleepy primary election, tonight racked up enough votes to become the first female GOP U.S. Senate nominee in Iowa history.
The Associated Press called the race shortly before 10 p.m.
The 43-year-old farmer’s daughter turned state senator and military commander eclipsed the 35 percent necessary to claim victory over her four competitors, including retired businessman Mark Jacobs, who tried to overpower the rest of the field by self-funding his campaign with millions from his own wealth.
Vote for Jodi Ernst and let her trim the pork in Washington, DC … its a simple choice for Iowa voters.
Washington is full of big spenders, let’s make them squeal
“This campaign will come down to a very simple choice: our shared Iowa values, versus Bruce Braley’s liberal Washington values,” Ernst said.
According to the statement, Ernst, a lieutenant colonel in the National Guard who served a tour in Iraq, will start a statewide tour on Wednesday alongside Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad and Lt. Gov. Kim Reynolds. She’s due to report for National Guard duty once that tour ends, the statement says without giving an exact time-frame.
- A group of key New Hampshire GOP activists are ready to listen to his ideas
Daily Commentary – Monday, April 28, 2014 Download
Daily Commentary – Wednesday, April 2, 2014 – FHP Troupers May Soon Get Bonus’s Based Upon Ticket Quota
- If the measure passes, FHP will get a bonus based upon the number of tickets they issue
Daily Commentary – Wednesday, April 2, 2014 Download