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November 03, 2012

Can Scott Brown Hang on to US Senate Seat in Heavily Democrat Massachusetts over Warren … Kimball Political Consulting Poll: Brown 49% – Warren 47%

Posted in: 2012 Elections,Senate,Senate Elections

In a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans 4 to 1, can GOP US Senator Scott Brown defeat liberal Democrat challenger Pocahontas Elizabeth Warren? Many polls have Brown behind; however, a recent Kimball Political Consulting poll has Brown ahead 49% to 47%. Interestingly enough Brown attacks 61% of the Independent vote and 21% of the Democrat vote. Will Obama have a coattail effect in Massachusetts or will voters not turn out in the numbers that they did in 2008?As The Weekly Standard reminds us that this is the second poll, Boston Globe poll, in a week that has the race tighter than many presume.

Scott Brown is hardly a conservative Republican; however, Warren is as liberal as it gets. It shall be telling which way the Bay State goes in their decision for representation in the US Senate.

Senator Scott Brown holds a 2 point advantage of Elizabeth Warren, according to a new Kimball Political Consulting poll. The survey stands in contrast to this week’s Suffolk University poll showing Warren holding a 7 point lead but mirrors the results of a Boston Globe poll from last weekend.

Brown captures 49% of the vote with Warren at 47% of “likely” voters. Kimball has done a series of tracking polls on this race since August with Warren taking her first lead (48% to 46%) in mid-October.

The Pollster, Spencer Kimball, believes the sleeper effect, which is when voters forget the messenger and remember the message, is what has turned things around for Brown. The theory suggests that Brown’s blistering attacks on Warren’s heritage and her legal representation took time to create the intended effect but voters may now be showing doubt about the Democrat nominee. Warren’s unfavorable opinion has risen to 45%.

In a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly 4 to 1 it appears Brown’s strategy to use high profile Democrat endorsements has worked, with Brown taking 21% of the Democrat vote.¬† Brown is also able to capture 61% of the Independent vote to Warren’s 34%.

Hot Air has a list of all the important hotly contested US Senate races including those in Wisconsin, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Dakota, among others.


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