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October 21, 2012

New WSJ/NBC Poll has it a Tie Between Romney & Obama at 47% Among Likely Voters

Posted in: 2012 Elections,Are You Better Off Today Than You Were 4 Years Ago,Barack Obama,Mitt Romney - Paul Ryan 2012,NBC/WSJ Poll,Polls,Presidential Election


So much for Barack Obama getting any bounce from the second Presidential debate after many stated he had won. A new WSJ/NBC poll  has the race a tow between Mitt Romney and Barack Obama at 47% a piece.In fact, not only did Obama not get a bounce from the second debate, Romney surged into a tie with Obama. This is the first time in this poll that Romney has pulled even with the president. We do not yet know what the poll sampling was for the latest poll, we will update when data becomes available.

Heading into Monday’s final debate and with just over two weeks until Election Day, President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney are now tied nationally, according the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

Obama and Romney both get 47 percent among likely voters in the latest edition of the poll, conducted entirely in the aftermath of the second presidential debate last Monday. In the last national NBC/WSJ poll, which was conducted before debate season began, the president held a narrow, three-point lead over his GOP challenger, 49 percent to 46 percent.

In the previous WSJ/NBC poll from 9/26-9/30, Obama was up +3 with a +6D sampling. Prior to that,  the WSJ/NBC poll for 9/12-9/16 Obama was up +5 with a +5D sampling. It is obvious that the polling trend is toward Romney.

Hot Air brings up the all important story from this latest poll. With an incumbent President just 16 days before an election polling only at 47% is terrible news for Team Obama. However, Obama is having serious issues with the gender gap for male and females as compared to his 2008 election victory.

Looking at some of the most important demographic groups, Romney leads among men (53 percent to 43 percent), Obama is up with women (51 percent to 43 percent) and they are essentially tied among voters in the Midwest.

However, as stated at Hot Air, it was a much different story when it came to the gender gap as Obama was +1 with men and +14with women.

In 2008, Obama won the election with a +14 gender gap over John McCain — +13 among women and +1 among men — on his way to a 7-point victory in the popular vote.  That advantage has now flipped to Romney, even in the Marist poll.  That’s a sixteen-point flip in the gap, and unless Obama expects a massive female turnout and massive male empathy on November 6th, it’s a very bad sign.

RCP has the race a tie as well; however, there are two skewed polls that should not even be considered and thrown out of the averaging. First,, the Hartford Courant/UCONN poll has Obama ahead by +3 has a sampling of +8D sampling. Second, the ABC/WAPO has Obama ahead by 3% with a poll sampling +9D. The IBD poll has to be questioned as well, Obama and Romney are basically tied with Democrats and Republicans; however, Romney is +10 with Independents. Yet some how Obama is ahead by 3%. How can that be except with a skewed over polling of Democrats?  Really folks, who honestly thinks this is valid? In other words, in the cases if the sampling was more in line to be realistic, Romney would be ahead in both polls. If these polls are discounted, as they should be, Romney would be ahead in the averaging of polls by 1.5%.

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