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October 16, 2012

Gallup: Mitt Romney 50% – Barack Obama 46% Among Likely Voters

Posted in: 2012 Elections,Barack Obama,Debates,Gallup,Mitt Romney - Paul Ryan 2012,Polls,Presidential Election

Wow, the Gallup poll is breaking for Romney. The most recent Gallup poll has Romney up over Obama 50% to 46% among “likely” voters. With one more good debate by Mitt Romney this evening or a poor or average showing by Obama, this race could be over tonight. Romney needs to properly explain the obligatory 47% question you know is coming tonight and needs to say the following with regards to Benghazi, and the terror attacks, A President delegates authority, a President does not delegate responsibility.

The Gallup poll is completely damning for Obama. With every single voting demographic, Obama is down from 2008, some down big.

More specifically, here are the key changes in Obama’s support by group since 2008:

  • Degreed voters backing off Obama: In 2008, Obama led McCain among postgraduate educated voters by a 30-point margin, while he ran roughly even with McCain among those with lower levels of education. Today, Obama’s postgraduate advantage has been cut to 14 points and he trails Romney among college graduates (those with four-year degrees only) by 22 points. His support from high school graduates and those with some college is also down slightly, providing no counterbalance to his major losses among the college educated.
  •  Southern losses: The South gave Obama the least support of any region in 2008, but still split their vote evenly for Obama vs. McCain. Today, Southerners favor Romney by a 22-point margin, the largest shift of any region. Voters in the East are also less supportive, while preferences in the West and Midwest are little changed.
  •  Young voters stick with him: Young voters were an important part of Obama’s 2008 coalition, and in 2012 they continue to support him overwhelmingly, at roughly the same level as four years ago. The difficulty for Obama is that he currently has less support among each older age group, particularly those aged 30 to 49 years.
  •  White support dwindles: Obama lost the white vote in 2008 by 12 percentage points, but that was more than offset by a 72-point lead among nonwhites. Today, Obama has a more daunting 22-point deficit among whites, while his margin over Romney among nonwhites is essentially unchanged.
  •  Men move away: In 2008, Gallup found a 14-point swing in gender preferences for president, with women favoring Obama by a 14-point margin and men tied in their preferences for Obama vs. McCain. Today, there is a 20-point gender gap. Women’s support for Obama shrank to six percentage points, while men favor Romney by 14 points.



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