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October 10, 2012

Romney Takes Lead in Gallup Poll Over Obama 49% to 47% Among Likely Voters

Posted in: 2012 Elections,Barack Obama,Debates,Gallup,Mitt Romney - Paul Ryan 2012,Polls,Presidential Election,Real Clear Politics

More good news for Mitt Romney from the Gallup poll. Romney is up by 2% over Obama, 49% to 47% among likely voters. It is just one of many polls that have seen Obama seize the lead in a national poll or battle ground state poll since the Presidential debate. The polling trend is obviously on the side of Mitt Romney. Sister Toldja has the reason reason why Romney has surged into the lead … 67 million people got to see the real Mitt Romney, while they also got to see that Obama really is an “empty chair” without his protective media.

Mitt Romney holds a slight edge over Barack Obama — 49% to 47% — in Gallup’s initial “likely voter” estimate, encompassing interviews from Oct. 2-8. Preferences tilt the opposite way among registered voters, 49% vs. 46% in Obama’s favor.

As is almost always the case in recent elections, likely voters at this point are more likely to support the Republican candidate than are all registered voters. Gallup’s estimate of the vote choices of likely voters shows that Romney gains three percentage points among likely voters compared with the total registered voter pool, and Obama loses two points.

At this point, Romney voters are somewhat more likely to respond that they will definitely vote, that they have thought a lot about the election, and that they are more familiar with where people in their local area vote. These attitudes indicate that Romney at this juncture will benefit from higher turnout on Election Day among his supporters than will Obama. These patterns could change closer to Election Day as more voters become engaged or if Republicans’ or Democrats’ enthusiasm for voting is altered by campaign events.

Hot Air reminds us that Romney is now out in the lead too in the RCP poll of polls.

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