GOP Primary: Mitt Romney Back in the Lead Over Santorum in Michigan … What a difference a Debate Makes

What a difference a debate makes as a front runner …

Just a week ago GOP primary Presidential hopeful Rick Santorum had a lead in Michigan and everyone was talking about Romney’s campaign being in jeopardy if he lost his home state of Michigan. Then there was the woeful debate by Santorum as the front runner where he failed to wow anyone.

The result … Mitt Romney is back on top in Michigan and pulling away. According to the most recent Rasmussen poll in Michigan, Romney leads with 40%, followed by Santoum with 34% while Paul and Gingrich bring up the rear. What a difference a week and a bad debate by Santorum makes. The previous Rasmussen poll had Santorum in the lead over Romney 38% to 34%. Santorum’s bad debate was Romney’s gain.  As reported at The Hill, Romney turned in a strong performance in a pivotal GOP debate on Wedesday in Arizona as it was the first debate in which Romney and Santorum were the clear central figures, and Santorum was battered by attacks from Paul and Romney over his record as a senator in Pennsylvania.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters in Michigan shows Romney with 40% of the vote and former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum with 34%. The poll was conducted on Thursday night, following the last scheduled debate among the GOP candidates. (To see survey question wording, click here)

Nate Silver also projects that Romney will be victorious in Michigan.

The FiveThirtyEight forecast model now projects a win for Mr. Romney by about four points in Michigan, roughly bisecting the Rasmussen Reports and Mitchell Research polls. Although that is inherently a fairly small margin, it is more meaningful given that there are just four full days of campaigning until Michigan votes; the model makes Mr. Romney about a 2:1 favorite in the state.

Mitt Romney also appears to be pulling away in Arizona as well.