Kaine Says Democrats will Hold House, then Why are They so Worried the GOP Will Take the House of Representatives in 2010 … New York State Set for Possible Democrat Purge

Wouldn’t it be real news if the Chairman of the DNCC admitted that the Democrats would lose?

The top democrat says they will not lose the House. Really? Then why are Democrats struggling in the “bluest” of “blue” states l;ike New York? Tim Kaine, the chairman of the Democratic National Committee, went on ABC’s ‘This Week’ and said the following shocking comment … the Democrats would retain the House. WOW, THAT’S NEWS!!!

Kaine told “This Week” anchor Christiane Amanpour that Democrats would maintain control of the House in the midterm elections nine days from now.

I do, I do. I think it’s going to be close,” he said. “These races are very close, but from this point forward, it’s all about turnout and ground game. And we’re seeing good early voting trends and we’ve got work to do, but we think we can do it.”

So is all the polling wrong, Amanpourasked. Kaine didn’t address that question, but said the wind was at Democrats’ backs.

Does any one think that the head cheerleader of the Democrats is going to admit they are going to lose? I mean seriously folks, these people could not tell the truth about Obamacare, the stimulus or creating jobs. America is just so enamored with Democrat House Speaker as seen by her 29% approval rating. It is only Obama who thinks she is a great Speaker, not the American voters. . Kaine must be drinking the Kool-Aid from the latest Newsweek poll  and not all the others that have the GOP ahead in the Congressional generic ballot.

Obvious, most Democrats do not share Kaine’s optimism. Most all Democrats are fearful of losing the House of Representatives in 2010 which can explain why they seem to be running as Republicans and as far away from the policies of Pelosi and Obama as they can.? Maybe it is because like in a Deep Blue state like New York, there are 11 possible seats that could change hands. 11!!! The Republicans just need a pick up of 39 to reclaim the majority. Currently, 27 of the 29 New York House seats are held by Democrats. All that could change in the 2010 midterms and what occurs in NY state could be the political indicator for what happens November 2nd election eve.

The 11 races up for grabs in New York. In a state where 93% of the House seats are held by Democrats, imagine what it means for Democrats to lose 4 or 5 seats in New York state?

1. Hall (D) v. Hayworth (R): In the 19th Congressional District (Westchester, Putnam, Orange), Republican Nan Hayworth, an ophthalmologist, is in a statistical tie with Rep. John Hall in the latest Monmouth University poll. Hall, a movement radical/singer (Orleans) who won in reaction to the Iraq war in 2006, has toed House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s line ever since.

However, numerous polls have the Repubpican candidate ahead like the Siena poll that has Hayworth ahead by 3%, while The Hill’s recent battleground polling had the race tied. How has the landscape changed in 2010? The incumbent Democrat Hall won his House election races in 2008 and 2006 by a 59%-41% and51%-49% respectively. Hall now finds himself in a virtual tie withan anti-incumbent Democrat scent in the wind.

2. Bishop v. Altschuler:In the 1st CD (Eastern Suffolk), Rep. Tim Bishop is behind Republican Randy Altschuler42-40 in the latest McLaughlin poll. A defeat of Bishop, a long-term incumbent, would send shock waves through the state’s delegation.

However, a recent Siena poll shows the GOP candidate down big. However, GOP candidate received the politcal endorsement from NJ Governor Chris Christie and has a nice war chest for down the stretch ads. Some recent polls only show the incumbent Democrat up by 2%.

3. McCarthy (D) v. Becker R): In the 17th (Nassau/Suffolk), Republican Fran Becker trails Carolyn McCarthy by just a point (46-45) in McLaughlin’s most recent poll. McCarthy, … is among the most reliable supporters of taxes and spending — and she’s tainted by donations from lobbyists recently indicted in the PMA “pay to play” earmarking scandal.

4. Owens (D) v. Doheny (R): Since Democrat Bill Owens narrowly defeated an independent candidate in a special election last year in the 23rd CD, he has been something of an endangered species. Now Republican Matt Doheny is mounting a strong challenge in the district, which includes Plattsburgh and much of the northeastern part of the state.

The Democrat Owens could be in some serious trouble in theis regular election, as his victory in the special election was a product of the GOP powers that be with the Doug Hoffman – Scozzafava fiasco. An NRCC poll has Doheny way ahead; however, keep in mind this is a Republican poll. A recent Siena poll shows the incumbent Democrat up by 5% but way under the 50% threshold generally needed by an incumbent candidate.

5. Israel v. Gomez:In the 2nd CD (Suffolk), Republican John Gomez is waging an aggressive campaign against Rep. Steve Israel. While no polling is available, the strong showings of Altschuler and Becker in the nearby districts raise the odds that Israel, one of the most liberal House members, can be beaten.

Gomez is a Tea Party favorite and represents a breathe of fresh air from the Washington, DC politics as usual.

6. McMahon (D) v. Grimm (R): Rep. Mike McMahon, the liberal Democratic incumbent in the 13th District shot himself in the foot when his campaign released a list of “Jewish” donors who’d given to Republican Mike Grimm’s campaign. Now Grimm has a good shot at McMahon in this traditionally GOP seat.

It is important to note that this disctrict was carried by McCain over Obama in the 2008 election 51% to 49%. New York’s 13th Congressional District is based in Staten Island, which casts about two-thirds of the district’s vote. Staten Island is the most reliably Republican borough in New York. This seat is one of those targeted districts where a Democrat is running in a McCain and George Bush carried district.

7. Arcuri (D) v. Hanna (R): Republican Richard Hanna leads Democratic Rep. Mike Arcuri by 46-43 in the latest McLaughlin poll. The 24thdistrict spans much of central New York, including Geneva, Cortland, Oneonta, Rome and Utica. Arcuri cooked his own goose by backing the Pelosi agenda 91 percent of the time.

8. Hinchey (D) v. Phillips (R): Longtime Democratic incumbent Rep. Maurice Hinchey finds himself in deep trouble after a video surfaced of him putting his hands around the neck of Kingston Daily Freeman reporter William Kimble during a heated confrontation last week before a League of Women’s Voters debate in Saugerties. The 22nd district includes Binghamton, Kingston and Ithaca.

9. Maffei v. Buerkle: In the 25th CD (Syracuse), Democratic Rep. Dan Maffeiis locked in a 40-40 tie with Ann Marie Buerkle, according to the McLaughlin poll. Maffei, long a fixture in local politics, alienated his district by his ardent support for ObamaCare.

The telephone survey of 400 likely voters was conducted Oct. 4 and 5 by Republican polling firm McLaughlin & Associates. It had a 4.9 percent margin of error and showed 40 percent of voters supporting Buerkle, 39 percent supporting Maffei and 21 percent undecided.

An earlier McLaughlin poll, conducted in July, showed Maffei up by nine points. And to pollster John McLaughlin, the shift shows momentum.

10. Murphy (D) v. Gibson (R): Democratic Rep. Scott Murphy hopes to win re-election by attacking his Republican challenger Chris Gibson for wanting to repeal ObamaCare. He’d better try something else. A recent poll by the National Republican Congressional Committee has him two points behind Gibson. The 20th district runs north from Hudson, skirts Albany and continues up to Glens Falls.

Although a recent Siena poll showed that Democrat Murphy was up big, this district was carried by Obama in 2008, but by GWB in 2004 and 2000.

11. Zeller v. Reed: Democrats have pretty much conceded the 29th district(the Southern Tier) to Republican Tom Reed, former mayor of Corning, who has a 14-point lead over Democrat Matt Zeller in the Siena College poll. The race is to fill the seat of Democrat Eric J. Massa, who resigned from Congress last year.

The 29th district will be held by the GOP following the 2010 midterm election. This one is a forgone conclusion as the Republican candidate Tom Reed is up by 12% in the polls. The Cook Report has this race as “likely Republican”.

The Cook Political Report has the following four New York US House races as toss ups:

NY-19 John Hall R+3
NY-20 Scott Murphy R+2
NY-23 Bill Owens R+1
NY-24 Michael Arcuri R+2

If Democrats are desperate in House seats like New York state, imagine what it must be like in real battle ground areas.