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April 25, 2010

NY Times Just Figuring Out Democrats Could Lose Congress in November Midterms

Posted in: 2010 Elections,2012 Elections,Barack Obama,Economy,Federal Deficits,Governor Races,House Elections,Nancy Pelosi,Obamacare,Obamanation,Obamanomics,Politics,Polls,Senate Elections,Tax & Spend Liberals,Tea Party,Unemployment,We the People

Who says that the New York Times, the Old Gray Lady is not up on their current affairs? This weekends article, “Democrats’ Long-Held Seats Face G.O.P. Threat”, the NY Times finally figures out that the GOP not only threatens long time Democrat seats, but they also may take over control of the Congress in this November’s midterm elections.

Wow, go figure … Welcome to the party pal, the Tea Party that is. Glad to see they finally coming out of denial and are admitting the inevitable. Because you know LEFT, admission is the first step. The MSM has been demonizing the Tea Parties and their criticisms of government. Has the NY Times finally seen the light?

Representative David R. Obey has won 21 straight races, easily prevailing through wars and economic crises that have spanned presidencies from Nixon’s to Obama’s. Yet the discontent with Washington surging through politics is now threatening not only his seat but also Democratic control of Congress.

Mr. Obey is one of nearly a dozen well-established House Democrats who are bracing for something they rarely face: serious competition. Their predicament is the latest sign of distress for their party and underlines why Republicans are confident of making big gains in November and perhaps even winning back the House.

The fight for the midterm elections is not confined to traditional battlegrounds, where Republicans and Democrats often swap seats every few cycles. In the Senate, Democrats are struggling to hold on to, among others, seats once held by President Obama and Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. Democrats are preparing to lose as many as 30 House seats — including a wave of first-term members — and Republicans have expanded their sights to places where political challenges seldom develop.

Democrats are preparing to lose 30 House seats. Well, so much for that denial I guess. Hardly, the way the mood of the country is, the loses for Democrats probably start at 35 to 40. Across the country Democrats find them self in real trouble. Blue Dog Democrats in the South are either retiring or find them self out of favor with the voters. Republicans and middle of the road independents realize that a vote for a Democrat is a vote for liberal Nancy Pelosi.

The article in Real Clear Politics, “How Bad Could 2010 Really Get For Democrats,” asks the question whether Democrats could lose 70, 80 or 90 seats. The polling data for Democrats is horrific, as Michael Barone calls this the worst polling environment for Democrats “during my 50 years of following politics closely. The Rasmussen Generic Ballot poll has Republicans up by 10%, an almost unheard of advantage. The bad economy, unemployment near 10%, President Obama’s job approval rating declining and the controversial agenda like Obamacare at an all time low, all spell disaster for Democrats. The polling data is so bad, if Republicans don’t will the House it would be considered a loss.

Representative Pete Sessions of Texas, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, said he would consider anything short of taking back the House a failure. Republicans say they have not recruited strong candidates in all districts, but both parties agree that Republicans are within reach of capturing the 40 additional seats needed to win control. Republicans also are likely to eat into the Democratic majority in the Senate, though their prospects of taking control remain slim.

For Republicans to take control of the US Senate they would need some races to break right; however, the GOP does stand to make significant gains.  I would tend to disagree with the NY Times map of Senate races as many of which they claim are leaning Democrat like PA, are more so leaning Republican.  With the mood of the country as such, the economy not looking to turn around by November, the electorate still upset over Obamacare and angered further by the recent news that Obamacare will increase costs, Republicans most likely will capture the toss up states and stand to pick up 8 to 9 Senate seats.

Republicans lead in the NY Times so-called vulnerable Senate seats of MO, NH, KY and OH. In the case of New Hampshire and Kentucky, the GOP candidate has a double digit lead. In Nevada, Pennsylvania, Arkansas, North Dakota, Indiana and Colorado, it is not a matter if Republicans win, but when. Even Barack Obama’s own former seat has a Republican in the lead in the polls. How bad is it for Democrats? Even Barbra Boxer is in the fight for her political life in California.

In the Senate, Republicans also are looking to make major gains, though their hopes of winning control were set back when Tommy Thompson, a former Wisconsin governor, decided against challenging Mr. Feingold, who is seeking a fourth term. Democrats control the Senate by 59 to 41 seats.

To win the majority, Republicans would essentially have to run the table in races across the country: fending off Democratic challenges to four vulnerable Republican seats in Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire and Ohio, and capturing 10 seats now held by Democrats. Even in this climate, Republican officials concede that an error-free year is unlikely. Republicans appear to have a shot at winning races in Arkansas, Colorado, Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Nevada, North Dakota and Pennsylvania.

They would also have to pick up the seats of decidedly more entrenched — though not unbeatable — incumbents, like Senators Barbara Boxer of California or Patty Murray of Washington.

Remember in November is the battle cry. If one asks the Magic 8 Ball if Democrats will suffer damaging political loses and more than the average number of seats of a first term President … Signs point to Yes.

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