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January 10, 2010

MASS Senate Race: Brown Leads Coakley in MA Senate Race … Or is Coakley Well Ahead by 15?

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There are some anxious moments for Democrats with the latest polling news out of Massachusetts for the Senate race between Republican Scott Brown and Democrat Martha Coakley. Who is really ahead?

This might be Republican wishful thinking, but it certainly is the trend against Democrats for 2010 elections … it just might be a bit much to believe that it will occur in Massachusetts. However, if Brown ever did manage to pull off a miracle, it would be the shot heard around the country …

The latest poll from the Public Policy Polling shows Republican Scott Brown with a 1% point lead over Democrat  Martha Coakley. Is this really possible in such a liberal and dark blue state like Massachusetts? It is almost incomprehensible to believe that the Senate seat of Teddy Kennedy could go Republican.

Buoyed by a huge advantage with independents and relative disinterest from Democratic voters in the state, Republican Scott Brown leads Martha Coakley 48-47.

Here are the major factors leading to this surprising state of affairs:

As was the case in the Gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia last year, it looks like the electorate in Massachusetts will be considerably more conservative than the one that showed up in 2008. Obama took the state by 26 points then, but those planning to vote next week only report having voted for him by 16.

Is it possible that the people of Massachusetts are so turned off by Democrat policies that have provided 10% unemployment. Could they be fed up with Obama and Duval Patrick so much that Republicans are highly motivated and Democrats supressed?

Republicans are considerably more enthusiastic about turning out to vote than Democrats are. 66% of GOP voters say they are ‘very excited’ about casting their votes, while only 48% of Democrats express that sentiment- and that’s among the Democrats who are planning to vote in contrast to the many who are apparently not planning to do so at this point.

Brown has eye popping numbers with independents, sporting a 70/16 favorability rating with them and holding a 63-31 lead in the horse race with Coakley. Health care may be hurting Democratic fortunes with that group, as only 27% of independents express support for Obama’s plan with 59% opposed.

As Michelle Malkin pleads, please have Obama and Biden run up to the Bay State and campaign for Martha Coakley and have them provide their losing Midas touch as they did in NJ and VA during the 2009 governor races. PLEASE!

However, a Boston Globe poll has Coakley ahead of Brown by 15 points.

Half of voters surveyed said they would pick Coakley, the attorney general, if the election were held today, compared with 35 percent who would pick Brown. Nine percent were undecided, and a third candidate in the race, independent Joseph L. Kennedy, received 5 percent.

I am going to have to agree with the thoughts of Jammie Wearing Fool as the polls are so far a part that the truth must exist some where in between. This is a perfect example why a past track record of correctly polling is required.

Here is the dream of Brown actually being elected MA Senator and how it would change Obamacare:

Here’s Brown on last night’s Hannity promising to be the 41st vote against ObamaCare — assuming the Dems let him into the chamber. Exit question: If you’re a Blue Dog, how do you begin to process this information?

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