Democrat Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid Says Senate Control Hinges on Iowa … Des Moines, Iowa Poll Says Republican Joni Ernst Up by 7 Over Bruce Braley

DINGY HARRY SAYS IF REPUBLICAN JONI ERNST WINS IOWA, DEMOCRATS WILL SQUEAL LIKE A CASTRATED PIG …

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid says that if Republican challenger Joni Ernst wins the Iowa Senate race against Bruce Baily, I mean Braley,  then the Democratic can kiss the US Senate majority goodbye. Truth be told, that is not entirely true as Iowa was never initially considered a Senate seat that was in play for the GOP to win a net 6 seats to gain control of the Senate. However, an Ernst win in the “Hawkeye” state probably means that the GOP will win more than a net six seats. However, that being said and if that is what Harry Reid really believes, then Reid could not have been too happy with the final Des Moines Register Iowa poll before Tuesday’s election that shows that Ernst with a 7 point advantage, 51% to 44% over Braley. Did Ernst really just break the critical majority threshold and put this race away, or is this poll an outlier as the Braley camp is praying. However, even Democrats fear that Iowa is slipping away.

Joni Ernst for US Senate

If Joni Ernst beats Rep. Bruce Braley in Iowa on Tuesday, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said he expects to kiss the Democratic majority goodbye.

The Nevada Democrat said if Braley wins in Iowa, Democrats will do “just fine.” And if they lose? Say hello to Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, Reid said in a conference call Saturday with the Progressive Change Campaign Committee.

“Joni Ernst would mean — coming to the United States Senate — that Mitch McConnell would be leader of the United States Senate, who agrees with her on everything.

Retired Command Sgt. Major, Chris Fox, was one of the 150 Iowa soldiers Joni Ernst led into Operation Iraqi Freedom in 2003. Hear what Chris has to say about Joni in this latest ad.

Des Moines Register Iowa poll:

• Although a small plurality of likely voters thinks Braley has more depth on the issues, they like Ernst better than Braley on several character descriptions. They think she better reflects Iowa values, she cares more about people like them, and she’s more of a regular, down-to-earth person.

• Voters find Ernst, who has led Iowa troops in war, to be a reassuring presence on security issues, the poll shows. In the wake of news developments on the Ebola outbreak in West Africa, increasing aggressiveness of Russia and the rise of the Islamic State in the Middle East, more likely voters see Ernst as better equipped than Braley to show leadership and judgment, by at least 9 points on each issue.

• Independent voters are going Ernst’s way, 51 percent to 39 percent.

• The negativity in the race has hurt Braley more than Ernst. Forty-four percent say he has been more negative in campaign ads, compared with 32 percent for Ernst.

• Among several potential mistakes the two candidates have made, the one that stands out is Braley’s seemingly condescending remark about Republican U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley. In March, GOP operatives released caught-on-tape remarks Braley made at a private fundraiser in Texas that seemed to question the qualifications of “a farmer from Iowa without a law degree” to become the next chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee.

From RCP comes the graphic below that shows the US Senate races in play that show the many possibilities how the GOP pick up a net 6 seats to take control of Senate. Keep in mind that the Open Democrat seats in South Dakota and West Virginia are likely GOP and the Open Democrat seat in Montana is considered Safe GOP.  Thus, the Republicans only need a net pickup of 3 seats from the ones below.

Please IOWA … retire Harry Reid as Senate Majority Leader!!!

UPDATE I: In the latest FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast, Democrats still have a 27 percent chance of holding on to control of the chamber.

In the latest FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast, Democrats still have a 27 percent chance of holding on to control of the chamber. But the more pressing question now may be the size of the Republican majority come next Congress. New polls out this weekend suggest that Republicans may not just win the six seats they need for control, but quite possibly eight seats — Republicans now have a 41.4 percent chance of doing just that.

Why? Let’s look at the map.

As for Iowa, Nate already spoke about the importance of the Des Moines Register poll that came out Saturday night, which showed Republican Joni Ernst up 51 to 44 percent over Democrat Bruce Braley. Even if that poll is too optimistic for Ernst, she has been ahead in the vast majority of public polls taken in October. FiveThirtyEight gives her a 71 percent chance to win.

But can Republicans hold on to Georgia and Kentucky? The answer, increasingly, looks to be yes.

UPDATE II: Democrats trotted out Michelle Obama, Hillary Clinton and Bill Clinton to stop Joni Ernst … and she Widened her poll Lead.

The big political news today is that the last pre-election Iowa poll conducted on behalf of the Des Moines Register shows Ernst opening up a 7-point lead over Braley among likely voters. Jennifer Jacobs reports on the poll results here and adds 10 interesting takeaways from the poll here. The poll’s margin of error is 3.7 percent. Ernst’s lead is still within the poll’s margin of error, but the movement seems to be significant and in her direction.

You have to wonder if the late movement doesn’t signify such movement in other similar races around the country. In October the Democrats pulled out all the stops for Braley. They kept Barack Obama away from the state. They threw Michelle Obama out to prop up Braley, not once (hey, give it up for her good friend “Bruce Bailey”), but twice. They threw out Hillary Clinton.

They even threw out the Big Dog himself. They brought in Bill Clinton to argue on Braley’s behalf that we would “grow together” with Bruce.