QUESTIONS LEADING INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY … WILL HILLARY FEEL THE “BERN” AND WILL TRUMP REALLY WILL BY SUCH A WIDE MARGIN?
According to the 7 News/UMass Lowell NH tracking poll, Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders have bog leads heading into next Tuesday’s, February 9, 2016 New Hampshire Presidential primary. Self proclaimed socialist Bernie Sanders is leading Hillary Clinton by double digits, 55% to 41%. The question becomes, will Sanders actually destroy the establishment presumptive Democrat nominee Hillary be such a wide margin Tuesday night? Will a socialist hand Hillary Clinton her lunch? According to the RCP average polling, the above tracking poll is pretty much in line. It would appear that the 74 year old socialist is poised to win a 14 to 15 percent victory over the Clinton machine in New Hampshire.
Our tracking poll shows both races settling down. Bernie Sanders is now beating Hillary Clinton 55 percent to 41 percent, his support holding steady. Clinton gained a point overnight, edging slightly closer. The tracking poll shows Clinton is still gaining on Sanders, but the pace of her rise has slowed and Sanders leveled off after three days of big drops.
“There’s a big gender gap in the Democratic race,” said Dr. Joshua Dyck, UMass Lowell pollster. “Sanders leads by more than 30 percent among men, but just 2% among women. A big change from earlier this week.”
As for the Republican party, Trump appears to have a commanding lead at 35% following by a pack of 4 individuals from 14% to 10% that include, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, Jeb Bush and John Kasich. However, one has to wonder if Rubio’s poor performance in last nights debate and strong performances by governors Christie and Bush might cause some last minute movement by the electorate? It’s hard to believe that Bush and Kasich have actually gained points but NH has become increasingly liberal these days. The real question heading into the NH Primaries is, will Trump over or under perform his polling, who will come in second and third and will Rubio’s terrible debate performance cost him and stop any momentum he might have had?
Among the Republicans, Donald Trump stays number one, with 35 percent; and picked up a point. Marco Rubio, at 14 percent, lost a point, but keeps second place. Ted Cruz, at 13 percent, also lost a point, but did not lose third place. The biggest GOP changes: John Kasich and Jeb Bush. Both have broken into double digits after both picked up two points overnight.
There were also some changes in the bottom tier. Chris Christie is at four percent, after losing a point since Friday. Ben Carson, three percent after losing one. And no change for Carly Fiorina, who also gets three percent.