Final CBS/NY Times/Quinnipiac Poll in OH, FL, VA show Obama up, But … Sampling Skewed

Another bogus poll Gives Obama the lead…

With just five days to go before the 2012 Presidential election, the final  CBS/NY Times/Quinnipiac poll is out and it has Barack Obama in the lead in Ohio, Florida and Virginia. Pie in the sky sampling gives Obama lead in poll of three swing states.

Mr. Obama now leads Romney 50 percent to 45 percent among likely voters in Ohio – exactly where the race stood on Oct. 22. His lead in Florida, however, has shrunk from nine points in September to just one point in the new survey, which shows Mr. Obama with 48 percent support and Romney with 47 percent. The president’s lead in Virginia has shrunk from five points in early October to two points in the new survey, which shows him with a 49 percent to 47 percent advantage.

However, not so fast. The small Obama lead was a result of questionable over-sampling of Democrats. As stated by Hot Air, at least the poll is consistent in their over-sampling. The CBS/NY Times/Quinnipiac polls used the following sampling, FL: 37D/30R/29I, OH: 37D/29R/30I, VA: 35D/27R/35I. The +7D in Florida, +8D in Ohio and +8D in Virginia os greater than the 2008 one in a life time wave election of Obama in 2008. No one thinks that Obama will find lighting in a bottle and recreate 2008. So why does this poll them skew the sample as if Obama will?

In each of these three states, the CBS/NYT/Q-poll shows Republicans at a lower percentage level of turnout than in the 2008 election.  If one makes that assumption, it’s not too difficult to be guess that Obama might be ahead.  However, that’s exactly the opposite of what all other polls rating enthusiasm are telling us what the electorate will look like on Tuesday.  In fact, it’s not even what this poll shows, with Republican enthusiasm +16 over Democrats in Florida, +14 in Ohio, and +7 in Virginia.

The PJ Tatler has more on the under-sampling of Republicans in polls in order to give the appearance of Obama in the lead.

I have to ask, what do these polling outfits think they are accomplishing? No one in the future will deem them credible, so why skew a poll? If one needs to over-sample Democrats in order to show he has a lead, what good is this? No one but no one believes that the turnout will be like 2008 for Obama in 2012. If anything, Romney and the GOP have the enthusiasm on their side.

The end result is that there are going to be many polling folks with egg on their face and a lot of explaining to do on November 7th. At some point in the future polls are going to have to be checked for their sincerity prior to being released as a news. All polls are not created equal and the liberal MSM obviously has slanted much of this data to favor their candidate.

UPDATE I: If the Q-poll cannot be trusted for a +8D sampling for an Obama lead, the same has to be said for thinking that the VA Senate race is not skewed as well.

Kaine is now ahead of Allen, 50 to 46 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll. The Republican has gained ground since earlier in October, when Kaine was up 51 to 44 percent in the same poll. Among independent voters in the most recent poll, Allen was ahead of Kaine, 56 to 38 percent, according to Quinnipiac. In contrast, the poll earlier this month showed independents supporting Kaine over Allen, 51 to 42 percent.

Newt Gingrich Says There is a Rumor that Two Major Networks Are Holding Emails From White House Canceling Plans to Assist Benghazi Heroes on 9-11

This could be big if it is released before the Presidential election and if true. However, it would surprise no one.

Last night Newt Gingrich told Greta Van Susteren that there is a rumors he heard from a “credible” Senator that two major news networks have emails proving the Barack Obama White House canceled plans to assist US personnel on the ground in Benghazi on 9-11-12.

From The Daily Caller:On Tuesday night’s “On the Record with Greta Van Susteren” on the Fox News Channel, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich said that major news networks might have secret emails proving that the White House canceled plans to assist the besieged U.S. consulate in Benghazi.

Gingrich said that the bombshell emails could be revealed within the next two days.

“There is a rumor — I want to be clear, it’s a rumor — that at least two networks have emails from the National Security Adviser’s office telling a counterterrorism group to stand down,” Gingrich said. “But they were a group in real-time trying to mobilize marines and C-130s and the fighter aircraft, and they were told explicitly by the White House stand down and do nothing. This is not a terrorist action. If that is true, and I’ve been told this by a fairly reliable U.S. senator, if that is true and comes out, I think it raises enormous questions about the president’s role, and Tom Donilon, the National Security Adviser’s role, the Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta, who has taken it on his own shoulders, that he said don’t go. And that is, I think, very dubious, given that the president said he had instructions they are supposed to do everything they could to secure American personnel.”

Joe Biden Talks About a 2016 Presidential Run … What a Delusional Little Man

Joe Biden is 2016 dreamin’ … Because Biden is just so Presidential.

Biden has not even completed making gaffes as VP in the 2012 Presidential election and this guy is making comments about running on 2016?  Sorry Joe but the only reason you are VP is because you happen to the the running mate of the first black president. No one voted for you as frankly you scared the living daylights out of most people that you are a heart beat away from the presidency.

“Look, I’m not trying to talk you into voting for me, I just wanted to say hi to you. And after it’s all over, when your insurance rates go down, then you’ll vote for me in 2016. I’ll talk to you later,” Biden said, according a pool reporter traveling with the vice president.

Biden, of course, hasn’t said whether he would run for president in 2016 and has been intensely focused on getting President Obama reelected next week, serving as the president’s chief attack dog on the trail.

I am going to go out on a limb and say there is no way Biden in the Democrat nominee for president in 2016. But as we stated above. Joe has not even finished making an ass out of himself in 2012 yet. Today Biden told supporters, “As they say in my business. I’m Going to Give You the Whole Load”.  Um, huh? Exactly what business are you referring to Joe?

Who would trust this man with the keys to the White House? Some how I doubt that America will be so forgiving with Biden’s gaffes when he is running for the top spot as opposed to Obama’s cabana boy.

Finally a Poll that Obama Leads Big Over Romney … Obama Leads 41% to 8% in Russia!!!


Finally, the Obama campaign has something to cheer about. They are leading by 33 points over Romney. The polling is outside the margin of error and points to a certain Obama victory and provides momentum for Team reelect Obama in the swing states. Oh wait, the poll was taken in Russia.  Oh, NEVER MIND!

An overwhelming percentage of Russians said the reelection of US President Barack Obama would better serve Russia’s national interests as opposed to the presidential challenger, Mitt Romney.

With the presidential race in the United States going down to the wire among American voters, Mitt Romney must be thankful that Russian citizens are not eligible to vote in US elections.

In a nationwide poll that tracked Russians’ political attitudes, a whopping 41 per cent of respondents said they want to see President Obama voted back into the White House, while just 8 per cent expressed preference for Republican challenger Mitt Romney.

Makes one wonder about Obama’s off-mike comments to Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, “This is my last election. After my election, I have more flexibility.”

Pollster Frank Luntz Reveals the Most Effective Political Ads

Pollster frank Luntz appeared on FOX News with Sean Hannity and reviewed some of the most effective political ads. The key to the effective and influential ads are that they are positive. Watch for yourself … Obama has gone negative. What else can an incumbent president do with a failed first term.


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