From the pages of US News & World Report comes the following that “never wrong” Allan Lichtman predicts that Barack Obama will win the 2012 Presidential election. Wanna bet Sir? Or as the Lonely Conservative puts it, “there is a first time for everything”. The keys to the Lichtman prediction are as follows.
1-Party mandate: Obama loses due to 2010 loss of the House to the GOP.
2-Contest: Obama wins as there is no serious potential for a Democrat primary.
3-Incumbency: Obama wins for obvious reasons.
4-Third Party: No left wing third party will challenge Obama, so he wins this one.
5-Short term economy: Undecided, as we don’t know how things will look a year from now.
6-Long-term economy: Obama loses for obvious reasons.
7-Policy change: Obama wins for his major policy changes.
8-Social unrest: Obama wins as there is no widespread social unrest.
9-Scandal: Obama wins because no major scandals have affected him or his administration.
10-Foreign/military failure: Obama wins because there are no obvious foreign policy failures.
11-Foreign/military success: Obama wins because Osama bin Laden is dead.
12-Incumbent charisma: Obama loses because he leads from behind.
13-Challenger charisma: Obama wins because nobody great will challenge him
So Obama has 9 wins … 3 loses and 1 undecided and thus a reelection. Not gonna happen. Let alone Lichtman’s analysis is a stretch at best. After the 2012 election, there will be one more sorry individual who hitches his wagon to Obama.
I guess we need to just forget the fact that Obama was a RCP average 43% job approval rating, 53.2% disapproval or a -10.2%. The Rasmussen Employment index has hit the skids. We are also supposed to discount the continual downward trend of all of Obama’s polling numbers with every single demographic. Let’s not forget the
Generic Presidential Ballot that has the GOP at 48% and Obama at 40% and the Congressional Generic ballot at GOP 45% and Democrats at 36%.
At 69.3, the Employment Index is down eight points from the beginning of the year and down 14 points since last November when hiring expectations peaked. Generally speaking, a decline in the Rasmussen Employment Index suggests the upcoming government reports on job creation will be worse than prior months.
Sorry dude, but even your analysis that gives Obama the win is flawed. Just as Barack Obama’s victory in 2008 was historic, so will be his loss in 2012. Lichtman, I do not think I would bet the house on Obama, then again, the mortgage would be underwater anyhow so what’s the difference, right? Then there is Lichtman’s flawed analysis that gives Obama the benefit of the doubt when all economic and key political issue indicators say just the opposite. So let’s review Obama’s so-called positive signs according to Lichtman:
2-Contest: Obama wins as there is no serious potential for a Democrat primary: Seriously? How many primary challenges have there ever been? We live in a different era of partisan party, Kool-aid drinking politics where both sides know that a primary challenge to an incumbent President is certain political suicide. Take this one off the list and irrelevant as even thought some in the Democrat party have asked for a primary challenge to Obama and 47% of Democrats think he should be challenged, it will never happen.
3-Incumbency: Obama wins for obvious reasons: Not in 2012. No way does being an incumbent help Obama in 2012, especially with millions of people out of work, an unemployment rate over 9% and a political mood in the country that has considered the past 4 years as pure misery. Obama could not campaign for many Democrat candidates in the 2010 midterm election because he was toxic and the passage of Obamacare, The situation has got worse since.
5-Short term economy: Undecided, as we don’t know how things will look a year from now: Huh? What economic policy change is Barack Obama going to do that is going to change what has already been done during his first 2-1/2 years? Is Obama suddenly going to become a Republican and adopt “Reaganomics” as that is the only way the US is making a comeback. This is an Obama loss, not an undecided as the CBO reported sluggish economic growth through 2012. Also, does anyone see the housing market coming back? Or is Obama going to repeal Obamacare? Hardly, Obama loses the short term economy question, this isn’t even close.
8-Social unrest: Obama wins as there is no widespread social unrest: NO SOCIAL UNREST, ARE YOU SERIOUS? I guess Lichtman has missed the black flash mobs and Democrats spewing hatred and violence. I guess Lichtman has also missed the social unrest of the American people tired of their tax payer dollars being wasted and an out of touch president more concerned with his golf game and vacation that the plight of the American people. No social unrest, Are you blind!
9-Scandal: Obama wins because no major scandals have affected him or his administration: I guess we are dismissing “The Fast & Furious” scandal. Try as they might the liberal MSM has tried to cover this up; however, just today the ATF Director was reassigned and the the U.S. attorney for Arizona is out amid the Fast & Furious scandal. Obama has not even felt the tip of the iceberg yet on this one.
Oops, we forgot 7-Policy change: Obama wins for his major policy changes. Huh? How does Obama win for Obamacare, remember that policy change, where by a 57% to 37% want to repeal the law. It is up to Obama and his minions as to whether this case is heard in the SCOTUS prior to the election. However, make no mistake it will be a policy change that will have to be defended and hands around the necks of Obama and all Democrats.
10-Foreign/military failure: Obama wins because there are no obvious foreign policy failures: Let us not forget that Obama said he would close GITMO and get us out of the wars. Also, August 2011 was the deadliest month for the United States in Afghanistan. Obama gets no points here, this is a tie.
13-Challenger charisma: Obama wins because nobody great will challenge him: How do you call this one a win for Obama when you don’t even know who the GOP challenger is going to be? This one is the undecided, until its known who Obama will face.
In my score book the tally is Obama wins 2 …. 9 loses and 1 undecided and 1 no points given. Personally, I do not see how Obama wins. Later this week we will do an electoral college, battle ground state look at Obama and compare the 2008 election to 2012.