Anyone wondering why pretty much all reasonable political pundits are stating that there will be a change of guards in the US House of Representatives after the 2010 midterm elections?
Van Tran for US House CA-47 …
From Town Hall.com comes the following startlingpoll in the CA-47 House race between Republican Van Tran and Democrat incumbent Loretta Sanchez. A district that Obama carried by 22% in the 2008 Presidential election is now a toss up in 2010 and the Democrats saviour and now statesman Bill Clinton was called in to salvage the seat. This race is just one of many examples across the United States as to just how much trouble Democrats are in this election cycle.
Van Tran is tied with Loretta Sanchez on the ballot test. Fully 39% of likely voters say they are supporting Van Tran, while 39% are backing Sanchez and 5% siding with Ceci Iglesias (17% undecided). Moreover, Tran’s definite support level is higher than that of Congresswoman Sanchez (30% definitely voting for Tran – 28% definitely voting for Sanchez).
- While there are certainly solid ethnic coalitions in this race – Asian and Vietnamese voters siding with Tran, Latinos favoring Sanchez – Tran enjoys a commanding 34-point lead with White voters in the district (60% Tran – 26% Sanchez).
- Van Tran also polls strongly with Independent voters (42% Tran – 28% Sanchez) and older voters (50% Tran – 30% Sanchez) – two groups that are likely going to determine the victor here.
- Van Tran has a commanding 22-point lead over Sanchez (52% – 30%) among voters who say they are “extremely interested” in the upcoming elections (rate their interest a “10”on a one-to-ten scale). Among a broader high interest segment of the electorate – the “8-10s” – Tran is up eight points (44% – 38%).