It is not just the US House of Representatives and US Senate where Republicans look to make major gains in the 2010 midterm elections, it is the State Governors races as well. Presently Rasmussen as his Governors score cared as GOP 27, Democrats 15 and 8 races are toss ups.
New polling in New Hampshire has moved that state’s Gubernatorial race from Solid Democratic to Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Gubernatorial Scorecard.
The Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Gubernatorial Scorecard shows Democrats solidly ahead in four states, with four more leaning their way. Republicans are running strongly in 16 states, and five more are leaning GOP.
Hawaii and Connecticut are the only states with a Republican governor that are considered likely to elect a Democrat in November. But six states now headed by Democrats – Iowa, Kansas, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee and Wyoming – are seen as likely GOP pickups.
Voters will elect governors in 37 states this November. Nineteen of those governorships are now held by Democrats, while Republicans sit in the governor’s chair in 18 of the states.
So what are the eight Governor races that are considered toss ups? New Hampshire was just added to the list from leans Democrat as the GOP candidate has had a surprising bounce in the polls.
- California - Republican Meg Whitman was a 46% to 42%lead over Democrat candidate Jerry Brown. When considering leaners Whitman lead 48% to 45%. Whitman as a 55% favorable opinion among CA voters, while 40% view her unfavorably.Jerry Brown, who is considered the establishment candidate is viewed favorably by 45%, with 23% who regard him Very Favorably. Brown’s unfavorables are 51%, including 36% very unfavorable. RCP average polling has Whitman with a 5% lead.
- Florida – Rasmussenhas Republican Rick Scott up by 1% over Democrat Alex Sink. This race will be a close race right until election day. Will voter turnout and Tea Party enthusiasm for US Senate candidate Marco Rubio swing the tide for the GOP in the governors race? Look for Tea Party Rubio coattails to help Scott across the finish line.
- Maryland - Incumbent Democrat Martin O’Malley and Republican challenger Bob Ehrlich remain basically tied for the third month in a row in the race for governor of Maryland. RCPaverage polling has O’Malley up by 3%; however, the incumbent is below the 50% polling threshold.
- New Hampshire – Following the NH primaries, Republican challenger John Stephen has received a huge bounce and the NH governors race has been moved from solid Democrat to a toss up. Incumbent and once considered safe John Lynch is only 2% ahead of GOP challenger John Stephens.
- New Mexico - Republican Susana Martinez is starting to pull away in this race as she now has a 48% to 43% lead over Democrat Diane Denish. When leaners are included in the new totals, Martinez holds a 51% to 44% lead over Denish. This race might soon be put in the leans Republican category as the trending is to Susana Martinez. RCP has Martinez up in all polls.
- Oregon – Republican Chris Dudley has a 49% to 44% lead over Democrat John Kitzhaber in Oregon’s gubernatorial race. Dudly is looked upon by voters as very favorable as he earns favorable reviews from 57% of Oregon voters and unfavorable marks from 30%. This includes 21% with a very Favorable view and 11% with a Very Unfavorable one. Look for a GOP upset in Oregon on November 2.
- Vermont – Following the Democratic primary, Peter Shumlin is running slightly ahead of Republican Lieutenant Governor Brian Dubie in Vermont’s gubernatorial race. Prior to the primaries, Dubie had a substantial lead in the polling over the Democrat hopeful. Before any thing can be evaluated in this race, another set of polls needs to be done to see the political landscape with some distance from a primary bounce. However, in a liberal state like Vermont, the GOP will have their hands full.
- Wisconsin - The last poll was taken prior to the Wisconsin Republicans primary; however, both GOP hopefuls in the state’s gubernatorial contest run just slightly ahead of Democrat Tom Barrett.
It can almost be said at this point that the Governor score card for 2010 can be changed to Republicans 30, Democrats 15 and Toss Ups 5.
UPDATE I: Wisconsin Governors race moves from toss up to leans Republican.
In the most receont Rasmussen poll, Republican Scott Walker leads Democrat Tom Barrett 51% to 43%. Rasmussen is moving the Gubnatorial race from a toss up to “leans Republican” with Walker’s 8% point lead. According to our count that would make it Republicans 31, Democrats 15 and Toss Ups 4.
Following his Tuesday Republican Primary win, Scott Walker bounces to his best showing yet in the Wisconsin governor’s race.
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Wisconsin, including leaners, finds Walker earning 51% support. His Democratic opponent, Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, picks up 43% of the vote. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided.