Poll Results: Obama and McCain Appear to be in an Even Heat … In a Democratic Year, Why Isn’t Obama Ahead … Flip-Flopping?


Flip-Flops … Hey Obama, if the shoe fits …

Obama’s flip-flopping may be cause for concern for many who voted for him Pink_flip_flopduring the Democratic primaries and even greater cause for concern for anyone who thinks that he can stick to a position.

What a difference a week makes with a poll. More to the point, what a difference flip-flopping makes to the results of a poll. Obama is doing everything he can to make it a close race. Imagine what poll numbers would look like if the media was not on his side? Both Republican, Democratic and non-partisan pundits are saying that the 2008 elections are going to be an overwhelming sweep for Democrats. Real Clear Politics shows that Democrats lead in the Generic Congressional Vote over Republicans by 12.2%. If this is the case, why isn’t Barack Obama leading John McCain by any substantial margin? Is he that bad a candidate?

Last week the Newsweek “mythical” poll had Obama leading McCain by 15 points, 51 to 36 percent. In the course of one week that same Newsweek poll has it a dead heat with Obama leading by 3 points, 44 percent to 41 percent. Why the massive free fall drop by the media darling, Obama? Could it be that Democrats are upset with their wanna be “Flip-flopper and Chief”? Obama’s reversal on FISA, faith based initiatives and the immediate pull out of troops from Iraq may be cause for concern for many Democrats. With all of Obama’s waffling and changing of positions … they voters might have well nominated Hillary Clinton for the Democratic candidate for this Falls Presidential election.

Obama’s rapid drop comes at a strategically challenging moment for the Democratic candidate. Having vanquished Hillary Clinton in early June, Obama quickly went about repositioning himself for a general-election audience–an unpleasant task for any nominee emerging from the pander-heavy primary contests and particularly for a candidate who’d slogged through a vigorous primary challenge in most every contest from January until June. Obama’s reversal on FISA legislation, his support of faith-based initiatives and his decision to opt out of the campaign public-financing system left him open to charges he was a flip-flopper. In the new poll, 53 percent of voters (and 50 percent of former Hillary Clinton supporters) believe that Obama has changed his position on key issues in order to gain political advantage.

Poll: National Race Tightens; Majority Says Obama Flip-Flopped On Key Issues

The CNN Poll has it a statistical dead heat, the Rasmussen Tracking Poll has a tie at 46%-46% and the Gallup Daily Tracking poll has it a statistical tie with Obama leading 46%–43%.

Barack Obama has little experience and may have knowledge remembering the 1988 election between George H.W. Bush and Dukakis when the Democrat lead by 16 points only to get thoroughly thrashed in the election.

At the time of the last poll, pundits also noted that a large lead in the polls doesn’t always guarantee a general-election victory. Many warned that Democrat Michael Dukakis led George H.W. Bush by as much as 16 points in some 1988 polls and then went on to lose that year’s presidential contest. 

But perhaps most puzzling is how McCain could have gained traction in the past month. To date, direct engagement with Obama has not seemed to favor the GOP nominee. McCain has announced major initiatives on energy and the economy but failed to dominate the conversation on those issues.

If you liked this post, you may also like these:

  • What Happened to the 10 Point Obama General Election Bounce over McCain?
  • McCain vs Obama … A Tale of Two Gallup Polls, Likely vs Registered Voters … McCain up by 4
  • Panic Time for Obama … McCain/Palin Gets Bounce and Poll Trending in their Favor (Gallup & Zogby)
  • John McCain … the Real Maverick … the Real Independent … Gallup Poll McCain Opens 15 point Lead Among Independents
  • Change You Can Believe In … McCain Takes Leads in Gallup Poll 46% – 44% after No Biden Bounce

  • Comments

    8 Responses to “Poll Results: Obama and McCain Appear to be in an Even Heat … In a Democratic Year, Why Isn’t Obama Ahead … Flip-Flopping?”

    1. Scared Monkeys on July 13th, 2008 8:16 pm

      That fact that Obama cannot keep a position on an issue will drive away Independent votes and far LEFT will make his life a living hell.

    2. m-antony on July 13th, 2008 8:27 pm

      See the cover of the magazine “The New Yorker”. You will not have to even comment. That is who they are. Oh, sweetie, FISA passed. Thanks fo the vote.

    3. richard on July 13th, 2008 9:19 pm

      I wonder how strong the “nausea factor” is?

      That is to say, if these polls included a question such as: “Do both major candidates, and does the whole political process of today, simply make you sick to your stomach?” …

      How many people would say, “HELL, YES!”

      Meanwhile, there’s talk that the government has taken strong measures to bolster Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, the big organizations that are responsible for some $5 trillion in mortgages, or so I believe.

      Needless to say, nobody is pointing out that for much of our history we got along perfectly well without the government providing bailouts for con artists … oops, sorry, I mean providing support for the mortgage market.

      In an AP story appeared an immortal quote that ran something like this: a high-ranking Treasury official (who declined to be named) said today (Sunday) that “the situation hadn’t deteriorated since Friday.”

      Honest to God, he said that.

      Never mind that the financial markets here were closed Saturday and Sunday; he seemed to be glad, or relieved, that for two whole days things hadn’t gotten worse.

      Great insight into government today.

      Meanwhile, the pundits are saying that the measures announced won’t help the market. I guess we’ll see this coming week.

      Anyone else think that a first step towards sanity would be outlawing all political ads on TV?
      Maybe the money saved could be used for good.

    4. Katablog on July 14th, 2008 11:53 am

      And wasn’t I lucky enough to have uncovered the new Obama Campaign Seal?


    5. brie. on July 14th, 2008 3:27 pm

      It’s like watching a ping-pong ball wearing flip-flops….

      He doesn’t take a definite position on any issues….today he is for this but then tomorrow it will all change….

      Always apologizing for what he said or trying to explain his way out it….he has a loose mouth and an arrogant attitude and has offended many people….a two year senator and civil rights attorney doesn’t qualify you to run for the Presidency…..

      How did the Democrats come up with this….it’s a joke!!! Step on his toe and he cries wah! wah!

      Later this month he is going to Iraq and taking Reed and Hagel with him…he can’t speak off the cuff without getting himself into trouble….don’t even know what he will say or do over there….and don’t tell our soldiers not to salute the American Flag…piss off, especially, a marine and he’ll ram it up your butt, big time…!!!!

    6. brie. on July 14th, 2008 8:22 pm

      Obama is on CNN again pointing that finger….he certainly likes the use of body language…

      Why are his ears in the wrong place on the side of his head..???

    7. yoyo muffintop on July 14th, 2008 10:02 pm

      After reading #5 & #6 – where do the grown-ups post?

      His ears? Obama’s ears are a function of genetics. I know you don’t believe in that stuff – you know Himmler and all that.

      We all know why you don’t care for Obama Brie…the color of his skin. You’ve made that clear many a time.

    8. Jon on July 19th, 2008 12:53 am

      As you change your minds you refine. So it can’t be so bad.

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