On the day that Hillary formally announces her run for the Presidency in 2008, pollsters are calling the election for the Democrats. Of course, they tend to think that John McCain is the leader for the Republicans, which in my humble opinion is about the worst choice for getting through the primaries. But them being pollsters, they can not help themselves.
The 54% probability of a Democratic win in the 2008 presidential election is based on a generic matchup. As for actual candidates, Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York leads the Democratic pack on Intrade.com with a 46% probability of winning her party’s nomination, followed by 23% for Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois and roughly 16% for former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina. On the Republican side, Sen. John McCain of Arizona is out in front with a 43% chance of getting the nomination. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani are tied for second with traders giving each of them a 17% shot.
Clinton is given a roughly 23% chance of winning the general election right now on Intrade, slightly higher than the 21% probability attached to McCain. via Washington Wire – WSJ.com
So if the press could have its way, lets not bother having the elections and annoint Hillary Clinton as the next president. Of course, one wonders whether she will campaign using her last name.